This year is expected to rival some of the hottest ever recorded, Canadian federal scientists say

A head of wheat is silhouetted by the sun in a wheat crop near Cremona, Alta., Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Canadian scientists say the recent stretch of exceptional global temperatures shows no signs of letting up in 2026.

Scientists with Environment and Climate Change Canada say global average temperatures this year are expected to be around 1.44 C warmer than pre-industrial averages.

That would put it behind 2024’s record-breaking warmth but in the same range as the next two hottest years, 2023 and 2025.

Climate modelling forecasts indicate the five-year stretch starting in 2026 is expected to be the hottest on record.

Steadily rising global temperatures, driven by heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions, got a boost in 2023 and 2024 from a strong El Niño, a natural climate warming phase.

Yet what some scientists found remarkable about last year was how temperatures stayed at near-record levels despite a flip to the cooling influence of a La Niña phase.

Forecasts suggest a return to neutral conditions this year, possibly followed by an El Niño event later in the year that could lead to record temperatures in 2027, ECCC said in Monday’s news release.

Canada is warming at more than twice the global rate, and even faster in the north.

ECCC scientists said Monday there’s a 12 per cent chance that global temperatures this year could climb to 1.5 C above pre-industrial averages — a key target of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It’s estimated the world may fully breach that threshold by 2030, a decade earlier than what some scientists had predicted when the agreement was signed.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, speaking at the UN climate summit in November, enjoined countries to act “with great speed and scale” to ensure global temperatures come back down by the end of the century.

“Each year above 1.5 degrees will hammer economies, deepen inequalities and inflict irreversible damage,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 19, 2026

Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press