With the Alberta referendum less than two months away, new polling finds many Albertans want to remain in Canada. The survey, conducted online by Research Co. between Aug. 24 and 26 and provided to CTV News, found 74 per cent would answer “no” to the provincial government’s question on separation. The pollster said 22 per cent were in favour of the Smith government commencing the legal process required to hold a legal, binding referendum about whether Alberta should separate from Canada. “This is something that is galvanizing Albertans, said Research Co. president Mario Canseco in an interview with CTV News. “There is a significant level of participation going to be seen, maybe higher than what we’ve seen in some of our provincial elections.” Canseco said the results indicate it’s not a close race. “It’s about one in four Albertans (for separation) when you factor in who’s decided they believe this is the right course of action.” Albertans split on outcome In the event Alberta does vote to separate, residents would be faced with some tough decisions on the future. Research Co. found 44 per cent of Albertans would stay while 45 per cent are committed to leaving. Forty-nine per cent of Calgarians who responded to the survey said they would move away — the highest result among all Alberta residents. Of the Edmonton respondents, 44 per cent would pack up and go, while 38 per cent of those living outside those major cities would leave. Differing views CTV News spoke with prominent separatists and federalists on Monday. Jeffrey Rath, of the Alberta Prosperity Project, claimed the Research Co. data was “inaccurate.” “It’s a silly poll,” he said, “and from our side, it certainly doesn’t reflect what’s going on on the ground.” Rath argues those who would be in favour of separating aren’t necessarily people who would answer an online survey. In fact, he alleges “many, many” people who supported the cause personally told him they didn’t want their names on the separation petition. Monte Solberg of the Vote To Stay group said he won’t split hairs about data until the votes are officially counted. “It really boils down to getting people out to the polls,” he said. “I’m not taking for granted that the remain side — the stay in Canada side — is going to win.” “A lot of positive progress has been made under the new (prime minister), but we all still have to vote.” Other concepts in a sovereign Alberta Research Co. also asked respondents about their opinions on other elements that could be a possibility if Alberta leaves Canada. These issues revolve around policies and legislation passed after the province makes the split. “Just over half of likely voters in Alberta (51 per cent) think a sovereign Alberta should keep a parliamentary system,” the pollster said. “Nineteen per cent would prefer to adopt a presidential system.” Many Albertans think sticking with the Canadian dollar would be the way to go while 22 per cent believe Alberta should create its own money. Fewer still (16 per cent) think a sovereign Alberta should use the American dollar. The survey also found 81 per cent in favour of maintaining a publicly funded universal health-care program and 43 per cent in support of keeping a GST. Other questions found 36 per cent of Albertans in favour of owning and carrying handguns for self-defence, 31 per cent supporting making marijuana illegal, 27 per cent in support of making same-sex marriage illegal and 24 per cent of respondents agreeing abortion should be illegal in a sovereign Alberta. Research Co. also found 50 per cent of respondents believe murder in a sovereign Alberta should be a crime punishable by death. “This is an embrace of the type of values Americans have,” Canseco said. “We don’t have half of people saying we want to carry guns. We don’t have half of people who want a health-care system that is privatized. We don’t have half of people saying let’s recriminalize marijuana, abortion and same-sex marriage, so this isn’t really a battle over values. “It’s more the complexities the area would face if it were to secede.” Turnout will make referendum feel real Research Co. says the validity of a referendum is linked to how many Albertans actually cast ballots. Eighty per cent of respondents said they would need to see at least 70 per cent of registered voters participating in the referendum before they would consider the result reasonable. If the turnout was much lower, Albertans would dismiss the whole referendum idea. More than 70 per cent of respondents believe a turnout of 30 per cent would be enough to sink it, Research Co. said. The referendum is set for Oct. 19. Research Co.’s data is compiled from responses of 750 likely voters in Alberta. It has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error for a sample this size is +/- 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. — with files from Timm Bruch
