Which industries will feel the pinch of Trump's tariffs the hardest?

GM workers use human assistance automation to weld vehicle doors at the General Motors assembly plant during the COVID-19 pandemic in Oshawa, Ont., on Friday, March 19, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

OTTAWA — U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order Saturday to impose tariffs of 10 per cent on Canadian energy and 25 per cent on everything else beginning on Feb. 4.

Statistics Canada says the value of Canadian exports to the United States in 2023 exceeded $594 billion.

More than 43 per cent of that came from just six industries: oil and gas extraction, oil and gas refining, auto manufacturing, aluminum production and processing, aerospace and crop and animal production

The U.S. is by far Canada’s largest trading partner. While Canada’s total exports to the U.S. from all industries came to $594 billion in 2023, its total exports to all other countries combined reached only $174 billion — meaning more than 77 per cent of all Canadian exports went to the U.S.

Here’s a look at the industries that will be hit the hardest:

1. Non-oilsands oil and gas extraction

Total U.S. exports in 2023: $143 billion.

U.S. exports as share of total exports: 97 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $121.6 billion from Alberta, $11.7 billion from Saskatchewan, $6.8 billion from Newfoundland and Labrador, $6.7 billion from British Columbia.

Estimated additional cost of 10 per cent tariffs: $14.3 billion.

2. Automobile and light-duty motor vehicle manufacturing

Total U.S. exports in 2023: $53 billion.

U.S. exports as share of total exports: 96 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $52.5 billion from Ontario, $24 million from Quebec, $17 million from Alberta.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $13.3 billion.

3. Canadian petroleum refineries

Total U.S. exports: $23 billion

U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 85 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $10.1 billion from New Brunswick, $6 billion from Alberta, $3.7 billion from Quebec, $2.4 billion from Ontario.

Estimated additional cost of 10 per cent tariffs: $2.3 billion.

4. Crop and animal production

Total U.S. exports: $13.1 billion

U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 32 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $4.7 billion from Ontario, $1.9 billion from Alberta, $1.8 billion from Saskatchewan, $1.4 billion from British Columbia, $1.2 billion from Quebec, $1.2 billion from Manitoba.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.3 billion.

5. Aluminum production and processing

Total U.S. exports: $12.8 billion.

U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 93 per cent.

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $9.8 billion from Quebec, $2 billion from Ontario, $915 million from British Columbia.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.

6. Aerospace production and parts

Total U.S. exports: $12.8 billion

U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 67 per cent

Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $8.8 billion from Quebec, $3.2 billion from Ontario, $374 million from Manitoba.

Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 1, 2025.

The Canadian Press