U.S. stocks jump to their best day in two months on hopes for a deal to get crude flowing globally again

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NEW YORK — U.S. stocks rallied to their best day in two months, and oil prices fell Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump called off his threat to bomb Iran in the evening. That raised hopes for a potential deal that could get the global flow of oil going again.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.8 per cent, coming off a back-to-back drop that had yanked it back to where it was in early May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped 929 points, or 1.9 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 2.5 per cent.

Stocks immediately veered higher in midday trading after Trump said on his social media network that “discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved” and that the time and place of a signing will “be announced shortly.”

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A deal to end the war with Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow oil tankers to carry crude again from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide. The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude sank 2.6 per cent to US$87.71. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 2.9 per cent to US$90.38, though it’s still above its roughly US$70 price from before the war.

Worries had been high because the United States and Iran launched attacks over the past several days threatening a more than monthlong tenuous ceasefire.

High oil prices caused by the Iran war have sent inflation painfully upward, and a report on Thursday showed that prices at the U.S. wholesale level increased by more in May than economists expected. The effect is worldwide, and the European Central Bank on Thursday became the first major central bank to raise interest rates in response.

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Higher rates can keep a lid on inflation. But they also slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. They hit investments seen as the most expensive in particular, and some critics are calling the artificial-intelligence industry a bubble where investment inflated too far.

Big swings for AI stocks have been yanking the U.S. stock market up and down over the last week, as they went from roaring to records to suddenly turning lower. The big concern is whether such stocks shot too high, too fast because of AI mania, and their careening moves have sometimes reversed direction by the hour.

AI stocks had already been rolling back up their roller coaster early Thursday, before Trump made his announcement on Iran.

Marvell Technology climbed 11.1 per cent. It’s coming off a manic stretch where it plunged 16.7 per cent, soared 9.6 per cent and then fell more than 5 per cent for two straight days. Just before that, it had a one-day surge of 32.5 per cent that was its best in history when Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested it could be “the next trillion-dollar company.” It was worth a bit more than US$190 billion at the time.

Companies involved in the making of chips, meanwhile, jumped to some of the market’s biggest gains. Lam Research leaped 12.7 per cent, and KLA climbed 12.9 per cent.

They helped offset an 8.5 per cent drop for Oracle. It reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, but it also said it expects to raise US$40 billion in cash this fiscal year through borrowing and sales of its stock. That comes after it raised US$48 billion last fiscal year to help pay for AI investments.

Other companies’ stocks have also been punished recently for announcing heavy spending on AI, as the question remains whether such investments will produce the profits and productivity that AI proponents are promising.

All told, the S&P 500 jumped 127.31 points to 7,394.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 929.97 to 50,848.75, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 640.16 to 25,809.66.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased sharply as falling oil prices meant less upward pressure on inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.45 per cent from 4.55 per cent late Wednesday, which is a significant move for the bond market.

A sustained drop in oil prices could allow the Federal Reserve to keep its main interest rate on hold this year, instead of hiking it as many traders suspected it may have to because of high inflation and a solid U.S. job market. Following Trump’s announcement, traders ratcheted back their bets for a possible increase to the federal funds rate this year, according to data from CME Group.

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The Fed could even resume its cuts to interest rates under its new chair, Kevin Warsh, if inflation pressures subside enough. Trump appointed Warsh, and Trump has been loudly calling for lower interest rates.

Stocks of smaller companies can feel the biggest benefit from easier interest rates because many need to borrow money to grow, and the Russell 2000 index of the smallest U.S. stocks jumped a market-leading 3 per cent.

In stock markets abroad, indexes rose modestly in Europe following a mixed finish in Asia.

London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7 per cent for two of the world’s bigger moves.

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Stan Choe and Alex Veiga, The Associated Press

AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed to this report.