Stocks leap worldwide, and oil prices drop after the U.S. and Iran reach a tentative deal on their war

Middle East political analyst Jeremy Wildeman describes the peace deal, initially announced by Trump on social media.

NEW YORK — Stock markets rallied worldwide Monday, and oil prices eased after the United States and Iran reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to get the global flow of crude going again.

The S&P 500 rose 1.7 per cent on hopes that this time, the announcement of an Iran-U.S. agreement will mean a long-term fix to a conflict that has worsened inflation around the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 468 points, or 0.9 per cent, to a record, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 3.1 per cent.

Stocks got a lift after the price for a barrel of Brent crude oil fell 4.8 per cent to US$83.17, back to where it was in early March. While that’s still above its price of roughly US$70 from before the war, it’s lower than the US$100 plus it cost just a few weeks ago. The hope is that lower oil prices will take pressure off households and businesses, which have had to pay higher prices for everything from food to fuel to fertilizer because of the war with Iran.

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Iran confirmed the deal, but it does not include a final agreement on issues like Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiations on that are expected to continue over the next 60 days, which leaves opportunity for hiccups that could derail the agreement. And even if the Strait of Hormuz does fully reopen on Friday as expected, it will likely take months for the energy industry to get back to full speed.

For now, though, relief swept through financial markets worldwide.

On Wall Street, stocks of companies with big fuel bills were instant winners. United Airlines flew 3.9 per cent higher, and cruise operator Royal Caribbean Group rose 6.6 per cent.

Stocks of companies enmeshed in the artificial-intelligence industry also jumped. These stocks have yo-yoed in recent weeks, going from roaring to records to suddenly turning lower. The concern is whether such stocks shot too high, too fast because of AI mania, and their careening moves have sometimes reversed direction by the hour.

Micron Technology rallied 10.8 per cent, and Advanced Micro Devices rose 7 per cent. Nvidia’s climb of 3.5 per cent was the strongest force pushing the S&P 500 upward because the AI chip company is Wall Street’s most valuable company, giving it more weight on the index than any other.

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket company that also owns the AI company xAI, rose 19.6 per cent in its second day of trading on Wall Street. Its successful debut on the Nasdaq suggested plenty of demand still exists among investors for AI. The market has given SpaceX a total value of more than US$2.1 trillion, making it bigger than Exxon Mobil, Bank of America and Coca-Cola combined.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased on hopes that lower oil prices will remove pressure on central banks to raise interest rates.

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The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.47 per cent from 4.48 per cent late Friday.

Europe’s central bank last week became the first major one in the world to raise interest rates because of the war with Iran. High interest rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. They hit investments seen as the most expensive in particular, and some critics are calling the AI industry a bubble where investment inflated too far.

The Fed will announce its latest decision on interest rates later this week, which will be the first under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. Traders see it as a near certainty that the Fed will leave its main interest rate steady after its two-day meeting ends Wednesday.

Traders had been raising bets that the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year because of how much inflation has accelerated and how solid the U.S. job market remains. But the tentative deal between the United States and Iran means traders are now betting on only a 57 per cent chance of a hike this year, down from 71 per cent a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Roku fell 1.9 per cent after the company announced that Fox Corp. is buying the streaming pioneer in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately US$22 billion.

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Roku’s stock had already soared 20 per cent Friday, when media reports emerged about a deal, which will give Fox access to the Roku channel, first-party data and more than 100 million global streaming households. Fox’s stock fell 16.8 per cent.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 122.83 points to 7,554.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 468.77 to 51,671.03, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 795.10 to 26,683.94.

In stock markets abroad, indexes climbed in Asia and Europe. Japan’s Nikkei 225 leaped five per cent for one of the world’s biggest gains and finished at a record.

“This is great news,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex. “Buying by foreign investors is leading the market with expectations of easing tensions around the situation in the Middle East.”

South Korea’s Kospi soared even more, 5.2 per cent, thanks in part to continued rallies for AI winners like Samsung Electronics.

London’s FTSE 100 was an outlier and slipped 0.4 per cent report.

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Stan Choe, The Associated Press

AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach and Senior Producer Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.