Ozempic and other GLP-1s about to take a bite out of the fast-food business: experts

Experts say people have shrinking appetites triggered by injectable drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro. (Adobe Stock/FILE)

If you visit a fast-food chain in the next few years, expect the menu to look a little less gluttonous.

In between the usual deep-fried options, industry observers anticipate more offerings that come in smaller portions, pack nutrients like protein or fibre and check enough boxes to be considered healthy.

The changes aren’t just a reflection of our growing predilection for snacking or our ongoing quest to trim down our tabs — and waists. They’re also because more people have shrinking appetites triggered by injectable drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro.

These glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, or GLP-1s, were predominantly used to treat diabetes until the masses realized they slow down emptying of the stomach, causing people to feel full longer than without the drug. Ipsos suggests 1.4 million Canadians are on GLP-1s and that number will triple by 2030 as many flock to a pill form Eli Lilly promised soon.

The uptake could spell trouble for fast-food joints already contending with more price- and health-conscious customers not on the drugs.

“In terms of absolute dollars, yes, restaurants are going to feel it,” said Leigh O’Donnell, head of shopper and category insights at research firm Kantar.

Since they began taking GLP-1s, 42 per cent of the 500 Canadians her company surveyed in December 2024 said they began making healthier choices. Thirty-four per cent said the drugs had them eating less often and 30 per cent said they were gravitating toward smaller quantities.

The results fly in the face of an industry that has supercharged its profits by conditioning diners to believe bigger is better. For years, people barely thought twice about “supersizing” their fries for less than a dollar or opting for the burger with an extra patty.

Sure, followers of the latest diet fads winced at the calories and when prices rose, many hated the cost, but for others, one whiff of anything bathed in fryer oil or pumped with sugar was all it took to convince them to open their wallets. Even less indulgent customers could be counted on to roll through a drive-thru for coffee on the way to work or a meal after hockey practice.

GLP-1s could put those habits in jeopardy.

“Now mom’s not hungry, so everybody else has got to wait until they get home (to eat),” O’Donnell said.

And it’s not just hunger GLP-1s are trouncing. They’re also getting people to rethink how they eat.

Kantar’s research shows 31 per cent of Canadians surveyed said their taste in food had changed since being on the drug. In the U.S., notable numbers of GLP-1 patients are skipping processed food or opting for items lower in sugar or more laden with fruit and vegetables.

“All of a sudden, they become more mindful, so instead of going out for burgers and fries once a week, they may replace that with something else, maybe a grilled chicken sandwich instead of a burger, and maybe a salad instead of fries on the side,” said Jordan LeBel, a food marketing professor at Concordia University.

That’s the best-case scenario for restaurants, but not everyone will switch one big-ticket item for another. Some might say no to upsizing their order, making it a combo or adding an extra treat to it. Others will forgo stopping at the fast-food joint altogether.

The result could be a drop in spending at restaurant chains that mirrors a decrease already materializing south of the border, where GLP-1s have caught on even faster.

A December 2024 paper from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business reported an eight per cent decline in spending at fast-food chains, coffee shops and limited-service restaurants like takeout counters during the first year of someone taking a GLP-1.

“It doesn’t sound like a big number, but that’s hundreds of millions of dollars,” LeBel said of the drop in revenue it could equate to.

At McDonald’s alone, equity analyst firm Redburn Atlantic has predicted there could be up to 28 million fewer customer visits because of GLP-1s, resulting in a revenue loss of US$482 million per year (about $674.2 million Cdn).

But it’s Shake Shack that William Blair analysts said in February 2024 that they “worry the most about.” The U.S. chain that entered the Canadian market last year is vulnerable because of its “indulgent menu with a focus on burgers (one of the categories for which consumption declined the most post-GLP-1) and a lack of history of successfully pivoting to healthier offerings.”

Even though the firm’s research shows they are among the chains that have lost the most visits from GLP-1 users, Outback Steakhouse, Chipotle and the Cheesecake Factory will likely fare better because they have more room to pivot to different menu items and portion sizes, the analysts concluded.

Some businesses have begun making that shift already. U.S. restaurant chain Cuba Libre has a GLP-1 menu items backed by nutritionists and Tucci, an Italian joint in New York, lets people order single meatballs from what the owner jokes is an “Ozempic menu.”

Though it’s hard to weed out whether GLP-1s or other eating habits were the trigger, sit-down restaurants in Canada are experimenting more with vegetables, fast-food giants are devoting a growing portion of their menus to snacks, and protein lattes — which pack a nutrient GLP-1 users require — are available at café chains like Starbucks and Tim Hortons.

Tims president Axel Schwan told The Canadian Press in late October that his company was aware of GLP-1s but said it wasn’t impacting the business.

While she didn’t name names, O’Donnell said most companies have their “head in the sand,” when it comes to GLP-1s, because they’re too stressed about other health trends, labour problems and rising beef costs.

“It’s just another whack,” she said.

Still, she maintains “all hope is not lost” for them because most of the population isn’t on GLP-1s and not everyone who tries them will stick with them.

Plus, even those that decide to take it for the long-term will want a treat every so often.

“People are not behaving monastically. They’re not like, ‘I will only eat cardboard and water for the rest of my life,’” she said.

“The reality of people’s crazy lives is they go to a quick-serve restaurant and even if you have a small fry or a Tims with extra cream in it, maybe that’s not something you do every day ... but they’re indulging a little bit.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 30, 2025.

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press