‘It’s insane’: Summer gas prices could hit record highs, upending budgets and travel

A woman pumps gas at a gas station in Mississauga, Ont., on February 13, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

MONTREAL — Since gas prices started climbing in March, Sarah Bradley has found herself bargain hunting across multiple grocery stores in Montreal.

“Before, I’m a one-stop shop person,” she said. “Now I think twice. I’m like, OK, do I need that from IGA or can I find it somewhere else for cheaper?

“It’s insane,” she said of the cost of filling up her Toyota RAV4 SUV this week, an expense that eats into other parts of her budget.

In fact, Bradley’s not even filling the tank. She’s pumping 12 litres for $24.57 at a Petro-Canada station where the price just breached $2 a litre. The rest she planned to pump at a Costco, where she’s a member and gets a discount.

“I’m on the road a lot and it affects our lifestyle choices, absolutely,” the consultant said.

As the conflict in the Middle East drags on and the global oil supply dwindles, the price of gas continues to hover near historic highs, with no sign of dropping before the travel-heavy summer season kicks off in earnest — or even before it winds down.

According to Natural Resources Canada, regular unleaded gasoline cost $1.98 per litre on average across the country on Thursday, climbing over the past week as it traced oil price trajectories.

The price marked a high not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The all-time high sits at around $2.14 per litre from June of that year, according to figures from the federal department.

On Thursday, gas prices reached $1.94 per litre in Toronto, $2.04 in Montreal, $2.23 in Vancouver, $1.90 in Calgary and $1.92 in Halifax.

“We’re in uncharted territory. We’ve never seen an energy crisis like this,” said Dan McTeague, president of advocacy group Canadians for Affordable Energy.

“This problem of a shortage is going to stay with us for the balance of the year.”

Even if the Strait of Hormuz — normally a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil products — opens up after a prolonged shutdown sparked by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran on Feb. 28, it will take months or even years before Persian Gulf producers can start churning out petroleum at full capacity and shipping it to refineries for wholesale purchase and retail consumption.

“The damage is done,” McTeague said, noting strikes against oilfields, refineries and natural gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq.

An International Energy Agency report this week said the mounting supply losses are “depleting global oil inventories at a record pace.”

Those stocks take time to refill.

Reopening oil wells that have been shut in is a drawn out, complicated process because of the cascade of physical and chemical changes in the reservoir and wellbore triggered by the closure. Meanwhile, many crude distillation sites have slashed production.

Even after hostilities end, repairs at facilities damaged in attacks could take months. At some sites, replacement parts could take years to be delivered. And skepticism among shippers about genuinely safe passage through the waterway could deter traffic from returning to pre-war levels for some time.

More than 80 per cent of the oil and natural gas that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets. But petroleum-based commodities are priced globally, meaning buyers all over the world feel the pinch to varying degrees.

Where the price of gas ends up this summer is “completely contingent” on whether the waterway remains blocked, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at price-tracking platform GasBuddy.

“The longer we stay there, the more Canadians may restrain their travel,” he said of high gas prices.

“For now, I’m not expecting massive drops in demand,” De Haan qualified. “Three short months of summer — a lot of Canadians are going to grimace and bear the higher price of fuel.”

However, they might try to cut costs elsewhere, he said.

Almoustapha Haidala is one Canadian who’s had to do just that, trimming his family’s weekly grocery budget.

“We’ll definitely cut back on food. Cutting back on food will affect our quality of life,” said the Montreal security guard in French as he filled up his Toyota Corolla while glancing up at the pylon sign reading $2.01 per litre.

“It’s too high. And it makes our expenses climb at the end of the month, which means we’re really struggling financially with everyday life.”

The price of gas varies widely from province to province and even city to city.

Filling your tank in the Northwest Territories cost 39 per cent more than in Manitoba on Friday — $2.52 per litre versus $1.82 per litre, respectively — according to GasBuddy. British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador have some of the highest prices, while the Prairies typically boast the lowest.

The reasons range from the provincial taxes to the location of refineries, the logistics of hauling fuel to the pump and competition between stations.

In April, the federal government suspended its excise tax on gas of 10 cents per litre until Sept. 7.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 15, 2026.

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press