Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is trending up and maintaining a marginal advantage over Conservative Leader Stephen Harper on the question of preferred prime minister, according to the latest tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
According to the latest numbers, released on Oct. 15:
• 33.9 per cent of respondents said they would prefer Trudeau as prime minister
• 29.2 per cent preferred Harper
• 20.1 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
• 5.8 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May
• 8.7 per cent were unsure
Respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?" The numbers released on Oct. 15 are based on tracking completed on Oct. 11, 13 and 14.
Nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 15. (Nanos Research)
When asked about their second choice for preferred prime minister:
• 39 per cent of respondents who picked Harper first had no second choice
• 53 per cent of those who picked Trudeau first said they would pick Mulcair second
• 61 per cent of those who preferred Mulcair said Trudeau would be their second choice
Survey methodology
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Nanos Party Power Index
On the Nanos Party Power Index, a composite of measures including ballot preferences and leadership impressions, the Liberals scored 58.4 points out of a possible 100, the NDP scored 51.4 points, and the Conservatives scored 47.6 points.
The Green Party scored 30.8 points and, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois scored 32.3 points.
The index measures each party's brand strength by incorporating information beyond current vote preference.
For the index, the views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.
Full survey at Nanos Research
Follow @niknanos on Twitter
