Liberals emerging with lead, NDP sliding, Conservatives steady: Nanos tracking
Published Monday, October 5, 2015 7:09AM EDT
Last Updated Monday, October 5, 2015 3:14PM EDT
The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals emerging with a lead in the national election race, with the Conservatives holding steady and the NDP continuing to slide.
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
- The latest numbers released on Oct. 5 show:
- The Liberals are at 35.6 per cent support nationally
- The Conservatives are at 31.0 per cent support
- The NDP is at 22.8 per cent support
- The Green Party is at 4.7 per cent support
The margin of error among the 1,071 decided voters is considered ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Advance polls open on Friday and run through the long weekend.
The NDP have slid by a significant margin in Quebec, from a high of 50 per cent support at the beginning of the campaign, down to 30.1 per cent in the latest poll. The NDP are now in a statistical tie with the Liberals in the province, who registered 28.1 per cent support in the latest tracking.
The Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives are also in a statistical tie for third, with the BQ at 20.4 per cent support and the Conservatives at 17.4 per cent in Quebec.
Outside Quebec, the latest regional numbers show:
- The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 50.2 per cent support
- The Conservatives lead in the Prairies, with 46.9 per cent support
- The Liberals have 40.9 per cent support in Ontario, while the Conservatives are at 36.5 per cent support
- In British Columbia, the Liberals are tracking at 34.7 per cent support, with the NDP at 30.0 per cent support
Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research says the polls are finally starting to show "significant movement," after a long stretch of the three major parties being tied. "The numbers have started to break out for all the federal parties," he told CTV's Canada AM on Monday.
That "break out" has meant a 10-day dip in the polls for the NDP, despite strong individual survey results for the party's leader, Thomas Mulcair.
"The Mulcair brand is strong, and it's very clear from the polling that he's probably the most well-liked of the three federal leaders," Nanos said. However, he suggested Mulcair's popularity might not be enough. "The bad news is, Canadians don't see him as prime minister," Nanos said.
He suggested expectations for Mulcair were high heading into the French debates, but his numbers took a dip after the first debate, and have continued to fall since participating in the second one. "He did not meet expectations in both those French debates," Nanos said. He also pointed out that the first French debate coincided with the NDP's release of its economic platform, which may have helped fuel their drop in the polls.
Nanos added that the poll numbers for the Liberals and the NDP have been closely linked, and the recent NDP slide has coincided with a rise for the Liberals.
"It's like a mirror image: the New Democrat numbers go down and the Liberals go up," Nanos said. According to Nanos, the numbers suggest the Liberals are seen as the "agent of change" for anti-Conservative voters who don't want Stephen Harper to win another election.
But with two weeks left in the campaign, Nanos says there's still a lot of time for the balance of power to shift, and for "the shape of the race to change."
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,071 respondents is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harper and Trudeau tied as preferred PM, Mulcair slides to third
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau tied on the preferred prime minister measure.
Meanwhile, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has slid to a distant third.
The latest numbers, which were released Oct. 5, show:
- 31.1 per cent of respondents named Harper as their preferred prime minister
- 30.2 per cent preferred Trudeau
- 20.7 per cent preferred Mulcair
- 10.4 per cent were unsure
Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
The results show the race between Harper and Trudeau has tightened up following the final French debate on Friday, while Mulcair's numbers have slid.
Party Power Index
On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of several measures including ballot preferences, PM preferences and leader impressions, the Liberals scored 54.8 points out of a possible 100, the NDP scored 50.8 points and the Conservatives scored 50.0 points.
The index measures each party's brand strength based on a set of questions about the federal parties and their leadership.
The views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Follow @niknanos on Twitter