The Conservatives and the Liberals are numerically tied in what remains a close three-way race, according to the latest Nanos National Nightly Tracking for CTV and the Globe and Mail.

Voters were asked which federal parties they would consider voting for locally as a first and second choice, if the election were held today.

The Liberal Party was the first selection of 31.6 per cent of respondents, followed by the Conservatives at 31.5 per cent, and the NDP at 29.1 per cent. The poll also found 4.2 per cent of respondents favoured the Green Party as their first choice, and 10.6 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.

The margin of error for 1,074 decided voters is ±3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Second choice

When asked to rank their second choice:

  • Among those who ranked the Liberals first, 50 per cent selected NDP second.
  • Among those who chose the Conservatives first, 47 per cent said they had no second choice, 24 per cent said they would choose the Liberals and 20 per cent said they would pick the NDP.
  • Those who said they would vote NDP first chose the Liberals as their second choice 47 per cent of the time, followed by the Green Party at 17 per cent.

Poll Methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign, using live agents.

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Harper holds marginal advantage as preferred choice for PM

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper holds a marginal advantage over the other major party leaders as the preferred choice for prime minister, the latest survey conducted by Nanos Research for CTV and the Globe and Mail suggests.

According to the latest numbers:

  • 30.2 per cent of respondents chose Harper when asked who they would prefer as prime minister
  • 27.1 per cent preferred Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
  • 26.2 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
  • 5.8 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May
  • 9.3 per cent were unsure

Survey respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?"

Out of the respondents who ranked Harper as their first choice for prime minister, 38 per cent said they had no second choice. Among those who said Trudeau was their preferred prime minister, 56 per cent said they would pick Mulcair second, and 53 per cent of those who ranked Mulcair as their first choice said Trudeau was their second.

The national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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