We asked three different analysts what the main party leaders have to do to win the federal election. Here's a rundown of what they had to say.
The pollster: 'Make it about the other guy'
Nik Nanos, CTV News' pollster and chair of Nanos Research Group, dismisses the notion that becoming prime minister is about being well-liked. Instead, he says many voters assess candidates and parties in terms of risk.
"How risky or not risky would it be to have Stephen Harper as prime minister again? Well, people have a sense of that, because he has been prime minister since 2006," he told CTVNews.ca.
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, face different challenges.
Canadians have become familiar with Mulcair during the four years he served as Opposition Leader, but a "question mark" remains on whether the NDP has what it takes to form a federal government, Nanos said.
On the other hand, Trudeau faces the opposite situation, where Canadians are familiar with the Liberal Party, but are less familiar with its leader, Nanos added.
He noted that the Tories have been successful in past elections, in part because they understand that a candidate's perceived riskiness is often more important than their likability.
"The Conservatives know that being prime minister is not a popularity contest… it's pretty clear. They don't even try to be liked because they know it's not important," he said.
In terms of winning enough seats to form the government, the Conservatives and the NDP will have to expand beyond their regional bases (out West and in Ontario for the Tories, and in Quebec for the New Democrats), while the Liberals will have to identify a region where they can start to build, Nanos said.
Each of the parties will be looking to pick up key ridings in British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area, where there is still some degree of fluidity, he added.
Nanos offers the same piece of advice to all three candidates: Focus the election on your opponents.
"In my experience, whoever the election is about usually loses," he said. "The last federal election was about Michael Ignatieff, the previous one before that was about Stephane Dion, and the one before that was about Paul Martin.
"Sadly, our state of political discourse is such that making it about the other guy, many times, works."
The political correspondent: Fear and a referendum on change
This federal election is shaping up to be a referendum on whether a change is needed at the top, says CTV journalist and host of Power Play Don Martin.
"I would argue that the overarching theme to motivate voters for the NDP and the Liberals is 'Get rid of Harper,'" he said. "In many ways they're trying to frame this as a referendum on our current Conservative government."
Watch for the Tories to try to drum up support by scaring Canadians about the potential consequences of the Liberals and NDP, who they'll argue are just waiting to "raise taxes and ruin the economy," Martin said.
"There's nothing necessarily in their histories to make that a realistic fear, but (Harper's) going to try and raise those bogeymen," he said, also noting that succeeding in politics often involves attacking your opponents.
"It's about trying to stop the other guy from winning; it's not about, necessarily, getting votes for yourself."
His advice differs for each of the candidates.
For Mulcair: "Make sure you have a rock-solid plan for the economy, that's going to pass all of the tests from economists and journalists, because the fear of the NDP taking over the levers of the economy is going to be the big fear factor that Stephen Harper will be advancing."
For Trudeau: "He has to impart a sense of gravitas, and show that he has the right stuff to be a leader, and not just someone who's doing this based solely on a family name and political charisma."
For Harper: "He has to put himself up as a hand of experience in a troubled economy, and make sure that the other leaders are deemed unfit for the prime minister's chair, or at least make that case pretty compelling."
The communications professional: Likability is key
With the parties running in a tight race, and no single ballot issue so far dividing the electorate, the candidates' respective likability will play a large role in who will win on Oct. 19, says Laura Babcock, president of PowerGroup Communications.
"What Canadians are looking at is which of the parties has a leader that represents my values and my concerns," she said. "It really becomes about the leadership, so it will become critical for each of these leaders to be accessible."
She has different advice for the candidates as they play up their respective strengths in the long campaign ahead.
Harper, who by this point is a well-known commodity to Canadians, has so far offered a "stay the course" campaign, she said.
"There's not a lot of ground for him to make up in terms of likability or in terms of his negatives," Babcock said.
He should aim to get through the long campaign, touting the party's strongest policy planks, while also making the case that the current global climate is too uncertain for a leadership change.
"That being said, it is not an aspirational message. It's not something that will energize a strong call for change," she said. "He's got the most difficult task in terms of being someone Canadians are drawn to, because he's already known."
Mulcair isn't as well known, so there is a potential for the NDP to present him to Canadians as a real alternative, Babcock said, cautioning that this could change as the campaign drags on.
"He needs to be extremely careful that he doesn't try to be too much like Harper by being overly controlling in his messaging," she said.
Meanwhile, Trudeau has the advantage of entering the race with high likability, but he will have to convince Canadians that he is ready for the job, she said.
The Liberal leader has committed to running a positive campaign, but questions remain on whether Trudeau’s personal likability will ultimately raise the status of his party, she said.
Key for Trudeau will be staying positive, aspirational, and putting substance in all of his public appearances, Babcock added.
"Aspirational platforms can be extremely effective if they succeed in energizing and mobilizing the electorate," she said. "That's where a campaign with big ideas and big excitement can get new voters out. It's extremely difficult, but it can be done."
