Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer and writes for CTVNews.ca. At a recent rally in Kansas, U.S. President Donald Trump reversed course on recent comments prohibiting Canadian contractor Bombardier from doing business in the U.S. as part of the ongoing trade war between the two nations. Additionally, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra also walked back recent positions by the White House saying, “we’re not in a trade war.” Less than two weeks out from the midterm elections, the truculence towards Ottawa is backfiring spectacularly as polls show Americans’ wholesale rejection of MAGA trade and tariff policies. The political magic that made Trump a darling of the far-right is noticeably diminishing. Now, on the eve of a historic election, the Trump administration is doing an about-face. Early voting across the United States is now underway and already Democratic voting is outpacing Republican totals in key states. New polling data show Trump at a minus 33 on tariffs. The costly trade war with its neighbour and ally has only further alienated voters and key cross-border companies doing business throughout the United States. Now, as Election Day draws near and once-Republican strongholds are in jeopardy, the president is singing a noticeably different tune. Bombardier, even with its extensive reach throughout the United States, has become a key target of the Trump administration as the trade feud has intensified. The company directly employs 1,500 Kansans at its location in Wichita. The entire state, for decades, has been a bastion of conservative politics. However, with those jobs no longer certain, given threats by the president, voters are now weighing their options. All of this comes on the heels of a recently announced US$50 million investment in the state by the defence contractor. The investment had, until Trump’s comments, been seen as untenable given the hostile climate. Rising tariffs, job uncertainty and voter anxiety are all leading to an electoral backlash that is forcing a major rethink by the president. However, with less than two weeks before Americans choose a new Congress, Trump’s new push might be too little, too late. The household toll According to the Yale Budget Lab, the trade imbroglio is costing American families approximately US$1,000 annually in higher costs. Still, the financial burden is vastly unequal from region to region. Michigan, a border state with enormous political implications because of its automotive and manufacturing supply chains, is seeing that number skyrocket to as much as US$5,600 per household. This is an astounding jump for a state crucial to both parties’ chances of shaping congressional power in November. Moreover, Canada’s counter-tariffs directly penalize major export states like Ohio, which has seen more than US$3 billion in goods affected. It’s another red state that Trump won handily in 2024. Yet, with Ottawa pushing back, Democrats are within striking distance of securing key gains in both the gubernatorial and Senate races. Trump’s about-face is stark, but there are now signs that it could be more than just campaign fodder. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two leaders — in a recent conversation — discussed trade, the Iran war and the Middle East. Moreover, it was recently reported that Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said that anything (referring to a trade deal) could happen before the midterms. The minister referenced the pressure that the White House is under as successive polls show an increasingly hostile electorate and eroding prospects for the governing Republicans. Sources say LeBlanc believes anything is possible when it comes to inking a deal before next month’s U.S. midterm elections. For years now, Trump has derogatorily chided Ottawa over incorrect and salacious claims. The ceaseless hostilities and unrelenting barrage of attacks have made headlines but have now placed Americans in a precarious financial state. Moreover, Ambassador Hoekstra has been all too willing to inflame tensions, making for volatile diplomacy on both sides of the border. Now, even Ottawa recognizes the vulnerable position the president has placed himself in and believes his desperation could provide an opening, albeit slim, to a trade deal. The election outcomes are still weeks away, but some voters are already sending a clear message to the president. The costly trade war and unrelenting bombardment of Canadian sovereignty are policies Americans reject. It appears the president has grudgingly accepted the voice and will of his constituents and is following their lead. That is a strikingly different approach for a notoriously stubborn and dogged politician. President Trump is no stranger to reversing course, but this time, an entire nation should hope the White House stays on this new trajectory.
