U.S. underestimated Iran, says military analyst on one-month mark of Iran war

Maj.-Gen. (Ret'd) David Fraser speaks on the one-month mark of the Iran War, ground troops being deployed, and the Houthis' strikes widening the conflict.

As the conflict in the Middle East reaches the one-month mark, a retired Canadian military expert says the United States underestimated Iran in this war.

“The U.S. did not expect this,” Maj.-Gen. (Ret’d) David Fraser, who led NATO forces in Afghanistan in 2006, told CTV News Channel on Saturday.

“The fact that they’re talking about adding Marines (and) there’s 10,000 more ground troops getting ready to go over there — this is not part of the original plan. I think the U.S. underestimated Iran.”

• READ MORE: U.S. to deploy around 1,000 troops to Middle East in coming days, AP source says
• READ MORE: Iranian attack on Saudi base injures U.S. troops. More American forces arrive in the Middle East

Fraser says the U.S. did not anticipate the impact this war would have on the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most important oil check-points in the world that has closed as a result of the war, impacting global oil prices.

Over 3,000 people have been killed in the war in the Middle East.

On Saturday, around 2,500 U.S. Marines arrived in the Middle East in addition to two aircraft carriers, numerous warships and nearly 50,000 troops that are already in the region.

The same day, Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile launch on Israel.

• READ MORE: Iran-backed Houthis enter the month-old war and could further threaten shipping

Fraser says this is a significant development in the Middle East conflict.

“That’s more air defence that the U.S. and Israel have to defend against, including regional countries,” he said.

“It’s yet another complexity of this war that just seems to be getting messier and messier by the day.”

Although the attack targeted Israel, Fraser says the missiles could have gone to any neighbouring countries, which could add pressure to the U.S. military, who have already seen over 300 U.S. service members wounded since the start of the war.

“The (U.S.) is going to divert assets down into Yemen to go find the Houthis missiles and start striking them, and that takes away from what the (U.S.) is doing in Iran and elsewhere,” Fraser said.

“It’s another stretching of the American resources, and they’re pulling in still more patriot batteries from elsewhere to try to bolster up the air defence.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday at an investment forum in Miami that he was disappointed with NATO’s lack of support in the war, calling it a “tremendous mistake.”

Trump stated that the U.S. has spent billions of dollars protecting NATO countries, and that due to their lack of support for the U.S. in the war, the U.S. may not protect NATO countries moving forward.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said there are talks that some NATO members could be part of a joint effort to ensure movement through the Strait of Hormuz if there is a ceasefire, following earlier remarks that Canada will not participate in the war.

• READ MORE: Canada will ‘never participate’ in Iran offensive, Carney says
• READ MORE: Carney, Starmer share ‘deep concern’ over Iran war as conflict disrupts shipping routes
• READ MORE: Carney: Canada might help vessels sail Strait of Hormuz if there is a ceasefire

However, Fraser says Trump refused to collaborate with NATO countries before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb 28.

“NATO was never informed or asked to participate,” Fraser said. “When they were asked, it was a demand, it was a threat and the (U.S.) president continues to threaten NATO.”

“This is a very angry, demanding president. It doesn’t matter what we do, it’s never enough and we should expect that he’s always going to cast aspersions on us and use his office to try to haul an organization so he can split us and create more power for himself.”