Iran’s new supreme leader is nowhere to be seen. That might be helping the regime to survive

Mojtaba Khamenei walks along a street in Tehran on May 31, 2019. (Hamid Foroutan/ISNA/AFP/Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

More than six weeks after he was announced as their new supreme leader following the assassination of his father, Iranians have still not seen or heard Mojtaba Khamenei.

In the midst of a conflict seen as posing an existential threat to the regime that has ruled their country for nearly half a century, Khamenei has been conspicuously absent. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric have been read out on national television or posted on social media. The regime has even used AI-generated videos to show Khamenei delivering messages, fueling speculation that the new supreme leader is incapacitated or abroad.

It’s in stark contrast to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was for decades the highly visible face of Iranian decision-making. Under him, not a week passed without a speech, a ruling, a carefully timed intervention.

A source told CNN last month that Khamenei had suffered a fractured foot, a bruised left eye and minor lacerations to his face in the same wave of strikes that killed his father and Iran’s top military commanders.

Another report on Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying he is taking part in meetings with senior officials via audio conferencing and is engaged in decision-making on major issues including the war and new negotiations ‌with Washington.

Is Khamenei in the loop? Is he setting the parameters, drawing the red lines his negotiators need? Or is the office of the leadership functionally vacant, and if so, who’s calling the shots?

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says it appears that “Mojtaba is not in a state where he can actually make critical decisions or micromanage the talks,” but that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not (for) the tactics for the negotiations.”

“The system does deliberately highlight Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a protective shield for that against internal criticism… unlike his father who would come out regularly and comment on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”

‘Very reasonable people’

U.S. President Donald Trump has boasted since the killing of the elder Khamenei that Iran has undergone regime change and described those now negotiating on behalf of Tehran as “reasonable.”

“We’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before,” he said last month.

Still, a second round of talks scheduled for Wednesday in Pakistan broke down after Iranian negotiators failed to appear. Trump attributed the collapse to Iran’s government being “seriously fractured” and extended a two week ceasefire to allow Iranian leaders time to formulate a “unified proposal.”

Iran’s opaque political system make finding out just how fragmented its leadership is all the more difficult. But the longer Khamenei stays out of the public eye, the louder the questions will become.

Over the past week, public messaging from Iran has consistently indicated that its negotiators would not attend talks in Islamabad while the U.S. naval blockade remains in place. Moreover, the political leadership currently governing Iran and guiding negotiations has consistently amplified unity with the Iranian military’s strategic objectives in attempts to dispel reports of fractures.

One Iranian state-affiliated outlet went so far as to dismiss rumors of internal rifts as “delusions” peddled by Western officials and media.

The regime has elevated one survivor after the U.S.-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and military leadership to embody unity. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s long-serving parliament speaker, has led the first round of negotiations with the U.S. in Islamabad and is now viewed as one of the main figures representing the Islamic Republic.

The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was involved in crushing pro-reform student protests – has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians capable of dealing with both suit-wearing diplomats and soldiers in battle fatigues.

Ghalibaf was joined in Islamabad by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a large delegation of Iranian officials in what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to signal unity.

As they negotiate the regime’s survival abroad, at home they must manage a base that has grown even more apprehensive about talks with the U.S. and eager to keep inflicting global pain as punishment for the attacks on Iran.

Ever since war broke out, the base has been rallying in the streets in a public display of support for a regime facing an existential threat. But even as those supporters signal unity, they are scrutinizing every move by officials seeking to secure the regime’s survival.

“If negotiations were difficult before the conflict, they are now far more complex,” Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on X. “Iran is facing an increasingly decentralized, hardline, and ideologically rigid system, one that interprets its resilience in the conflict as a form of divine victory.”

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said after last week’s negotiations ended with no deal that the Iranian delegation had to return home for approval from either the supreme leader or “someone else.”

Until now, a deal without a supreme leader’s blessing was not a deal the Iranian body politic could hold together. However, Iran may have entered a new phase where the visible buy-in of the leader is no longer required.

The supreme leader’s apparent absence has left Iran’s surviving politicians caught between two pressures – managing the constant aftermath of Trump’s public commentary (which has proven detrimental to talks) and a hardline domestic base which views any compromise with the U.S. as surrender.

“Managing this is very difficult …it’s a sign of a real dilemma,” Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “They need to walk a tightrope in balancing all those domestic and external pressures.”

Battle for survival

This unofficial wartime arrangement, which has elevated certain Iranian officials to positions of leadership, has left even the regime’s most loyal supporters confused over who is making decisions.

Last week, when Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial shipping, he came under fire from the regime’s supporters who accused him of preemptively handing Trump an opportunity to declare victory.

“Iranian society has been left in a state of confusion,” a popular state-affiliated outlet, Fars News, said after Araghchi’s declaration. Another state-affiliated outlet said the move “requires approval from the leadership, and it is necessary for officials to provide clarification on this matter.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian also drew opprobrium last month after apologizing to Arab neighbours and declaring there would be no more attacks against them.

Such media criticism has increased speculation that there may be infighting among the politicians. But after Araghchi came under attack, Ghalibaf delivered a national address to assure the population that there’s cohesion and Iranian media began calling

“This regime is not yet out of the woods,” Vaez said. “It is a battle of survival to this day and at any point they could revert back to war, so they are not in a position to get into infighting.”

For now, Iran’s new supreme leader, a man used to operating from the shadows, is serving a useful purpose for the country’s veteran politicians.

“Attributing views to him even if he doesn’t necessarily agree with them is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves against criticism,” Vaez said. “There’s no countering from a man who is missing in action.”

By Mostafa Salem, CNN