Slovenia's liberals and populists neck and neck, preliminary results show

People casts her vote at a polling station for parliamentary elections in Arnace, Slovenia, on Sunday, March 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Denes Erdos)

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia — Slovenia’s governing liberals and opposition right-wing populists were neck and neck after a highly contested parliamentary election on Sunday, near-complete preliminary results showed, heralding a period of political uncertainty in the small European Union country.

Prime Minister Robert Golob’s centre-left Freedom Movement won 28.5 per cent of the votes while the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party, or SDS, led by ex-premier Janez Jansa — an admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump — had 28.1 per cent, the State Election Commission said after counting some 99 per cent of the ballots.

The practically equal result means that none of the main parties will have a majority in the 90-member parliament and that whoever will form a future government will depend on smaller parties that will act as kingmakers. It was not immediately clear what shape possible future alliances might take.

Speaking after the results were released, Golob expressed confidence his party will form the next government though he acknowledged that “tough negotiations lie ahead.”

“In the next term, we will do everything we can to ensure a better future,” Golob said. “We can look forward to moving ahead, into the future, under a free sun.”

Jansa predicted that “there will not be much (political) stability” after the ballot.

The vote on Sunday was seen as a key test of whether the EU member nation stays on its liberal course or sways toward the right. The undecided outcome also reflects deep divisions among Slovenia’s 1.7 million eligible voters.

Golob’s government has been a strong liberal voice in the 27-nation EU. SDS leader Jansa is a populist-style politician and a close ally of nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose return to power would be a boost to Europe’s right-wing blocs.

Upon voting on Sunday, Golob warned that the “democracy and sovereignty” of Slovenia can no longer be taken for granted. He urged voters to “not let others decide instead of you, go out and vote.”

Jansa said the election amounted to a “referendum on whether the people can take back the state.”

The vote came after an election campaign marred by claims, first made by a group of activists and journalists, that a string of secret video recordings showing alleged government-tied corruption, aimed to sway the voters.

Authorities have opened a probe into the allegations that Jansa’s party and a private, foreign agency were linked to the recordings. Jansa has acknowledged having contacts with a Black Cube agency adviser but denied the allegations of election interference.

Black Cube didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The company, run by two former Israeli intelligence agents, has been involved in a number of controversies over the years, including an undercover operation on behalf of the film mogul Harvey Weinstein to discredit his accusers. It has said that all of its activities are legal and ethical.

Jansa, 67, a veteran politician and a former dissident during communism, has faced accusations of clamping down on media freedoms and undermining the rule of law in Slovenia during his latest term in office in 2020-22, which he has denied.

A former energy company manager, 59-year-old Golob and his party were seen in 2022 as a new hope for disillusioned voters. The government, however, has since been shaken by a series of reshuffles, problems with health care reform and frequent changes in tax policy that reflected an air of inconsistency.

Internationally, Golob’s government has taken a strongly pro-Palestinian stance, recognizing a Palestinian state in 2024 and banning top Israeli officials from entry. Jansa, on the other hand, is pro-Israel and has strongly criticized Palestinian recognition.

Slovenia routinely has switched between the two blocks since it broke away from the former Yugoslavia in 1991. The Alpine nation of 2 million people became a member of NATO and the EU in 2004.

Ali Zerdin, The Associated Press