Eric Ham: What’s behind Carney’s openness to join Trump’s space weapons program?

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on May20, 2025, in Washington (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) and Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office on May 6, 2025 (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney listens to questions during a meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, May 6, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Eric Ham is based in Washington, D.C. and is a political analyst for CTV News. He’s a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress and writes for CTVNews.ca.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to begin work on his ambitious Golden Dome missile defence program.

The “Big Beautiful Bill” Act, a whopping, multi-trillion deficit-busting spending law, appropriates US$25 billion initially for the White House’s signature military program.

Perhaps even more surprising than the program itself is Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signalling support for it and potentially offering Ottawa’s backing, which could come with a multi-billion dollar investment.

This move comes amid the U.S.-Canada relationship having reached its nadir with acrimony and venom being lobbed back and forth. However, with Carney telegraphing a potential partnership on President Trump’s single biggest defence endeavour once again, the nascent politician exhibits patience and calculation in his protracted yet delicate approach to the mercurial strongman who’s bent of engulfing Canada.

Patterned after Israel’s Iron Dome, President Trump’s Golden Dome is envisioned to include ground- and space-based capabilities that are able to detect and stop missiles at all four major stages of a potential attack: detecting and destroying before launch; intercepting them in their earliest stage of flight; stopping them midcourse in the air; or halting them in the final minutes as they descend toward a target.

The top line price proposed by the president appears modest compared with estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, which stated that just the space-based components of the project alone could run US$542 billion over 20 years.

To be clear, while the president picked the concept he wanted, the Pentagon is still developing the requirements that Golden Dome will need to meet. Still, criticism for the project is mounting throughout Washington and other global capitals. The primary concern being placing weapons in space creates a new frontier for potential war.

In a joint statement earlier this month, China and Russia called the Golden Dome idea “deeply destabilizing in nature,” warning it would turn “outer space into an environment for placing weapons and an arena for armed confrontation.”

However, this criticism of the program and initial pushback throughout Canada’s national security landscape does not appear to have deterred the prime minister’s willingness to explore a joint-partnership with the United States. The ballooning price tag, President Trump’s ambitious completion date, and other non-verifiable pronouncements seem to have no impact on Carney’s decision moving forward.

Nevertheless, others have raised both questions and alarm bells about the potential partnership and how it might position Canada in a future arms race in space. Perhaps the move is actually more in line with Carney’s more aggressive strategy beefing up Canada’s military capabilities.

• Tom Mulcair: No Golden Dome can protect Canada from Donald Trump

In March, Carney announced a US$6-billion investment to build an early warning radar system in partnership with Australia. Moreover, the Liberal election platform also committed to more than $18 billion in spending on national defence. Such an amount would put Canada on track to exceed its NATO target by the year 2030. Certainly music to Trump’s ears as he has derided NATO members throughout his presidency for failing to meet the two per cent GDP threshold.

However, in a piercing Machiavellian move, Carney’s signalled support gives Canada enormous leverage over the president as he charts a pathway for building his budget-busting boondoggle. Canada has nearly four million square miles (10 million square kilometres) of territory. That airspace offers a crucial line of sight for U.S. sensors to shoot down missiles that Beijing and Moscow are developing to fly over the North Pole — a huge gap in American air defences.

Ottawa has historically funded about 40 per cent of the North American Aerospace Defence (NORAD), the joint defence command operation involving Canada and the United States. In fact, Ottawa is planning investments of $38 billion into the regional military command with new radars in the North over the next two decades.

Without those investments — and additional sensors that can peer over the North Pole — officials believe the U.S. will have trouble putting together a credible North American air defence.

Ottawa, in order to help build a Golden Dome, would need to outfit its territory with more radars and interceptors, such as those already dotted across California and Alaska. It also would likely have to take a more active role in commanding air defences. Therefore, with Carney agreeing to become a potential partner in President Trump’s Star Wars 2.0, it is now Canada that wields enormous leverage to dictate terms to the White House.

The prime minister has already telegraphed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement will need to be renegotiated and the still punishing tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to strangle economic growth throughout the country.

As in their first face-to-face meeting in the Oval Office, Prime Minister Carney continues to move with stealth and resolve. Moreover, Carney astutely recognized that President Trump would like nothing better than to leave a signature game-changing policy program that shapes the region and the world.

Undoubtedly, Trump is thinking big and grand, seeking to play above the clouds and into the stars. Yet, for any of this idealistic planning to come to fruition, he will need the one nation he has gleefully forsaken in order to make it happen. Already speaking dismissively of Ottawa, President Trump said during his announcement: “They want to have protection also, so as usual, we help Canada,” continuing to excoriate America’s northern neighbour as perennial free riders of America’s largesse.

Alas, it will now be Canada extracting a heavy price should the White House move forward with the Golden Dome Missile Defence program. Once again, Carney’s political acumen and skill at the political long game is now on the cusp of reaping massive dividends, underscoring why Canadians elected the former banker. Carney’s gamesmanship is single-handedly staving off economic warfare, all the while neutering a persistent and certifiable foe. Game. Set. Match.