Windsorites feel crime is on the rise. Do the statistics back it up?

A new study shows Windsor residents believe crime is on the rise, but as CTV’s Robert Lothian explains, it’s actually declining.

A new survey shows that many Windsorites feel crime has increased in the past year, even if that hasn’t been statistically the case.

Conducted by research firm Liaison Strategies, the poll of 800 Windsor residents showed 82 per cent believe crime in Canada has increased over the last 12 months.

However, according to Windsor Police Service data, crime through the first 11 months of the year is down 12.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies, says Windsor follows a trend recorded across the province.

“No matter what was actually happening on the ground, people think crime is going up for every single category we tested,” Valentin said.

Asking residents in Ontario’s biggest cities, the poll included questions about the rate of fraud, hate-motivated crimes, vehicle thefts, break-and-enters, robberies, homicides, and assaults.

In each case, the majority of respondents believed the prevalence of each crime had increased, although that often wasn’t the case.

Compared to the other cities, Windsor had the highest number of people reporting an increase in crime, followed by Brampton (76 per cent), Toronto (74 per cent), and Hamilton (72 per cent).

Situated on the U.S. border, Valentin believes Windsor’s exposure to the American market can influence how residents perceive the crime rate.

“Windsorites also get American media because we’re right across the border from Detroit. They’re going to hear about crime that’s happening right across the border in Detroit. So, it is interesting to me that the highest scores are in a city that shares a media market with the United States,” he said.

While the media plays a role in how people view crime, an associate professor in criminology at the University of Windsor noted there’s other factors to consider.

Dr. Natalie Delia feels the survey results are reflective of whether people feel safe in Windsor.

“The question is, how much do you feel like the social is deteriorating as a function of crime, danger, instability, and insecurity? The fact that Windsorites feel less safe this year than they did last year is to be expected,” she told CTV News.

Instead of crime statistics, Delia notes housing security, inflation, and Canada’s standing in the world can influence whether people feel safe.

“When you ask people, are you more or less likely to be robbed in the coming year? That doesn’t just mean street crime. It means, are you more or less likely to become houseless? Are you more or less likely to need to rely on a food bank? The answer is yes,” Delia added.

In recent years, more police forces have pushed a tough-on-crime approach, while politicians have used crime as a pillar of election campaigns.

“Increasing police presence on the streets and increasing prison sentences or making bail less flexible will not make the 82 per cent of Windsorites who report that their perception is that crime is increasing, feel safer,” Delia said.

Instead, Delia says there’s a need for more “holistic” approaches targeting the root causes of inequality in order to increase the sense of safety.