Slow year predicted for home sales, new home construction in Windsor area: CMHC report

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The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is predicting a slow year when it comes to home sales and the new home construction market in the Windsor area.

CMHC’s Lead Economist for southern Ontario Anthony Passarelli says it’s due to the uncertainty in the economy driven by Canada’s trade relationship with the United States that will continue to weigh on confidence and keep some people from making big-ticket purchases, like homes, while also keeping some builders on the sidelines.

“We think it’s going to be a bit of a slower year in terms of home sales and construction activity in the market, driven by some of that uncertainty that exists there. It’s a little more heightened in Windsor than some other parts of the province,” he says.

The two countries are due to renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) later this year.

The CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook 2026 is forecasting a high of 5,800 home sales this year in the Windsor area with an average price of $575,000, up slightly from the 5,402 homes sold in 2025 at an average price of $559,168.

The report says total housing starts in the Windsor CMA are expected to decline further in 2026, reflecting ongoing weakness in both ground-oriented and condominium apartment construction. Ample resale inventory and shifting migration patterns also continue to dampen homeownership demand.

Passarelli says the rental construction part of the market will drive new construction over the next few years.

“There’s a lot of support behind this part of the market from all levels of government,” he says. “Some of that is because of the other types of housing, the low-rise, ground-oriented houses that are purchased; those markets are quite soft right now, the same with the condo market.”

Passarelli says you should expect to see a buyer’s market condition for resale homes with a lot of choices out there.

“Those prospective buyers, some of them being a bit hesitant, particularly in the year, that construction activity should slow down a bit from recent years where it’s been quite strong,” he says. “But in the rental part of it we might actually see things start to pick up because there are a lot of government incentives behind that type of construction.”

The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate is expected to rise throughout the forecast period. Declines in the number of work-permit holders and study-permit holders, groups that have historically driven much of Windsor’s rental demand, are contributing to softer conditions.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom unit will continue to grow at a modest pace. Asking rents may decrease as vacancies rise but rent adjustments upon tenant turnover will keep pushing up the overall average rent paid.

The report also says as broader economic conditions stabilize in 2027 and 2028; greater homeownership demand will support a recovery in ground-oriented housing starts. This recovery will lead to more starts in outer areas of the CMA, such as Tecumseh and Amherstburg.