Conservative sweep across Windsor-Essex, Chatham-Kent shocks local analyst

Conservatives won the four ridings in Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent. CTV Windsor's Chris Campbell has election details.

A local political analyst says the 2025 federal election produced a political upheaval across southwestern Ontario, calling the Conservative wave that swept through Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent both “completely unexpected” and “catastrophic” for the New Democrats.

Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, said she was stunned by the election outcome across the region — particularly the defeat of longtime NDP MP Brian Masse in Windsor West, who placed third behind the Conservatives and Liberals.

“A completely unexpected outcome,” Miljan said. “I’m just relieved that I did not put money on any of these races, because I thought that both Windsor West and Windsor–Tecumseh were going to see how they started. And I really did not see the Conservatives winning those ridings.”

Miljan called Masse’s loss the biggest shock of the night. Windsor West, long considered an NDP stronghold, flipped to the Conservatives despite last-minute visits from federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Liberal Leader Mark Carney. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had visited the riding just once in April.

“I have been saying if the NDP lost Windsor West, that would be catastrophic for them because it just was such one of those very few safe seats that the NDP had, but clearly it wasn’t safe, and that the Conservatives were able to win it,” she said. “And that’s quite interesting in and of itself, simply because both Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh had been to the riding in recent days, very close to election day, where the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre hadn’t … So clearly it shows that the Conservatives in these areas have a much better ground game. They’re much more organized than the NDP or the Liberals had imagined.”

Miljan said the sweep underscores how effectively the Conservatives appealed to working-class voters and private-sector union members, traditionally a stronghold for the NDP.

“I think it’s more that they were very strategic in how they courted the labour vote,” she said. “Poilievre, and it didn’t get a lot of press at the time, but if you were on socials, they were pointing out that there was a lot of unions that were supporting the Conservatives — the steelworkers, a lot of private sector unions. And I think that the Conservatives were able to speak to working-class Canadians.”

Miljan said messages around affordability and cost-of-living issues resonated in a region now grappling with rising housing prices and financial strain.

“They were trying to sell a positive message, one of hope, one that there would be better affordability,” she said. “And even in this region, which, you know, historically has had really low housing prices, people are now priced out of the market and I think that the Conservative campaign spoke to those bread-and-butter issues.”

With the Conservatives poised to form a minority government and Poilievre’s personal defeat in his riding leaving questions around party leadership, Miljan said the next few weeks could involve political recalibration across all parties.

“I think in the short term, everyone’s going to have to take a breath and a pause,” she said. “The Conservatives are now in a little bit of disarray because their leader didn’t win his seat. And we’ll have to see what happens there — whether he resigns or whether somebody steps down so that he can run in a by-election or whether the party wants to go in another direction.”

Still, Miljan told CTV News she believes there’s incentive for all sides to cooperate on key economic and trade issues.

“I think that there is an appetite for cooperation,” she said. “We do show a very polarized electorate. And I think a lot of Canadians were reassured with Mark Carney that he was moving the party in a much more economic and centrist position. But at the same time, there’s a high expectation on him to deliver on negotiating trade and negotiating tariffs.”

She added that the Conservatives could benefit from supporting a pro-Canada trade stance while continuing to pressure the Liberals on domestic promises like the elimination of the consumer carbon price.

“They can push the Liberals to fulfill their commitments to actually get rid of the consumer carbon price,” Miljan said. “I mean, as we know, they only reduced it to zero. They have to actually now introduce that legislation. So there’ll be a lot of things that the Conservatives will be there to make sure that the Liberals follow through on those promises.”