‘Very rare, but obviously not 0%’: How likely is an Ebola spread in Toronto during the FIFA World Cup?

Infectious diseases specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch has an update on an Ebola outbreak in DRC, and whether Canada should take more precautions.

Soccer fans from around the world are about to descend on Toronto when it hosts a handful of games for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. But could cases of the Ebola virus linked to a deadly outbreak in Central Africa also make the trip?

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak — which started in the Democratic Republic of Congo and has killed at least 131 people — an international health emergency over the weekend.

Over 500 reported cases of the virus have been reported since the outbreak began. There is currently no approved treatment for this particular variant of Ebola, named the Bundibugyo virus.

In a risk assessment on the likelihood of diseases coming to Canadian host cities during the tournament, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) said while it is “closely monitoring” the situation, the chances of Ebola importation in Toronto or Vancouver carries a “very low likelihood.”

“Canada will continue to implement appropriate health protocols should a case be imported to Canada. We will work with our international and domestic partners from provinces and territories to inform our response and protect the health of Canadians,” the agency said.

In an interview with CP24 on Tuesday, infectious diseases specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch explained that exposure to the virus outside of Central Africa would be “very rare, but obviously not zero per cent.”

Bogoch recalled a previous outbreak in several countries across West Africa in 2014 which spread to 28,000 people and ended with more than 11,000 deaths. A small number of cases were reported in the U.S.

“There were very few, but still some cases that travelled through commercial airlines to distant locations, to, for example, Nigeria, and of course to the United States,” he said.

“So this is the time where governments around the world will start looking at their interactions and their proximity through air travel with the affected countries, and they might start seeing screening questions in airports,” he said.

• TIMELINE: A look at major Ebola outbreaks and when the disease was first identified

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Monday it will start screening air travellers from countries connected to the outbreak and restricting entry for non-U.S. passport holders who travelled to parts of Central Africa in recent weeks.

For its part, the PHAC said it will be conducting a rapid risk assessment to assess importation risk and thereby, “overall risk for the population of Canada.”

‘Unlikely that we will have to deal with anything here’

Dr. Allison McGeer, an infectious disease physician at Sinai Health System, told CTV News Channel on Tuesday that, similar to the spread of the hantavirus, the risk of catching Ebola in Canada is low.

“It’s really unlikely that we will have to deal with anything here. This is not an area of the world where there is frequent travel to Northern European or North American countries,” she said.

She noted that there were zero cases of Ebola detected in Canada following the 2014 outbreak in West Africa.

“From an individual Canadian point of view, at the moment really not relevant.”

The current hantavirus outbreak, which started on a Dutch-owned cruise ship, has resulted in 11 cases globally, including three deaths.

Ten people in Ontario are currently isolating after they were exposed to the virus. One person has tested positive for the virus in B.C., marking the first Canadian case linked to the outbreak.

Hantavirus was included in PHAC’s infectious disease audit ahead of the World Cup. It said the overall risk of catching the virus to the general population is low.