Gas prices set to rise across GTA as U.S.-Iran conflict continues

A woman gasses up at a gas station in Mississauga, Ont., Tuesday, February 13, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

Drivers across the GTA may want to fill up their tanks tonight as gas prices are expected to rise by eight cents a litre on Wednesday amid uncertainty in global oil markets as the conflict between the United States and Iran continues.

Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, told CP24 that gas prices are expected to jump overnight from 164.9 cents a litre to 172.9 cents a litre across the GTA. Prices are expected to rise again Thursday, reaching 174.9 cents a litre.

Diesel prices are expected to increase even more, McTeague says, rising 11 cents overnight to 205.9 cents a litre across the GTA, before climbing another eight cents Thursday to 213.9 cents a litre.

“If you’re not filling up today, then you’re going to be very disappointed because the prices are likely to hold at least until Thursday,” McTeague said.

McTeague warned that the latest increase at the pump is “only a small taste” of what could come in the next few weeks as global fuel supplies face increasing pressure.

According to McTeague, U.S. petroleum stockpiles are nearing critical levels, removing a key buffer that has helped keep oil prices stable in recent months. He said the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve cannot fall below 300 million barrels and is already hovering around 315 million to 316 million barrels.

McTeague said that leaves roughly another week and a half before U.S. officials may no longer be able to draw from the reserve’s underground storage sites in Louisiana.

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Once those reserves and other sources are “incapable of responding and providing that necessary buffer,” McTeague said markets will recognize the severity of the situation, potentially leading to a “serious, serious energy crisis” and higher prices at the pump.

Last Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was “over,” after Iranian attacks on commercial shops in the Strait of Hormuz and on American military sites in the Middle East.

Iranian officials stated the strikes were triggered by ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, which Tehran characterized as a direct violation of the June ceasefire agreement.