Saskatchewan agriculture experts say Trump’s potential tariffs on potash will be mutually harmful

Saskatchewan warns the move of potash tariffs could raise the cost for producers on both sides of the border. Sierra D’Souza Butts reports.

Agriculture experts are sharing their concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump announced potential tariffs on Canadian potash.

“A lot of it does come in from Canada, and so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that if we have to,” Trump told reporters Monday in Washington, when commenting on how the government plans to bolster domestic fertilizer production in the country.

Despite a significant gap in potash production between the U.S. and Canada, one agriculture expert said the move would have a negative impact on farmers in both countries.

“The U.S. produces about 400,000 tons of potash per year compared to Canada [which produces] around 12, 13 million tons, and we export half of that to the U.S.,” said Stuart Smyth, professor of agriculture and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan.

“About six million tons a year compared to their 400,000. If this tariff comes into place and it stops the Americans from importing fertilizer, they’d have a deficiency of about 5.5 million tons next year.”

• Download the CTV News app to get breaking news alerts sent to your device

He added consumers would also feel the effects financially.

“If it was really there and it was that economical to be in production, [the U.S.] would be producing it and drawing on their own domestic supplies, rather than going through the higher cost of importing it from Saskatchewan,” Smyth explained.

Aware of Trump’s message, Premier Scott Moe said the province continues to work with other countries in effort to not rely on the U.S. as its sole trading partner.

“When comments like this come, we take a breath, take the President seriously, [but] don’t always take him literally word for word with respect to what he says,” Moe told reporters Tuesday morning in Saskatoon.

“Let’s remember as Canadians what we’re actually trying to negotiate here which is a broader, replacement for, or update to the USMCA [agreement] and that we can continue trading not only with the U.S. and Mexico, but with other countries around the world. The goal here is for free, fair and open trade. The goal here is not to take the bait, so to speak, on everything that’s mentioned by whatever international leader.”

In a statement to CTV News, the Saskatchewan Mining Association (SMA) said the U.S. heavily relies on potash production from Canada.

“U.S. farmers depend on Canadian potash, and Canadian farmers depend on U.S. phosphate,” the statement read.

“Potentially imposing tariffs on fertilizer will increase costs for farmers, strain supply chains, and ultimately raise food prices for consumers.”

Because new fertilizer supply cannot be developed quickly, the association said the process could take 10 to 15 years leading to economic stress for both countries.

“Furthermore, not all mineral deposits are created equal – they must be technically and financially economical to access,” the association stated. “The [SMA] will continue to monitor the developments and engage constructively with policymakers to support predictable trade.”

RELATED STORIES

• Trump threatens ‘severe tariffs’ on Canadian fertilizer in attempt to aid U.S. farmers
• Saskatchewan’s Mineral Resources Amendment Act aims to free stranded potash