OTTAWA – For the first time since 2015, the Nanos federal ballot tracking has the federal Conservative party in the lead.

According to the latest national ballot support which asks Canadians who they'd consider voting for federally:

  • 36 per cent of respondents said the Conservative Party;
  • 33 per cent said they support the Liberals; and
  • 19.8 per cent said they would back the NDP.

The ballot tracking has the Green Party at 6.4 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 4 per cent.

The results, which are to be published Tuesday, were released exclusively to CTV’s Power Play in advance.

"Hypothetically if there was an election held today we could be looking at a Conservative minority government, and not good news, I would say, for the Liberals," said pollster Nik Nanos on CTV’s Power Play.

Nanos, who is the founder of Nanos Research, said the reasons for the shift putting the Tories on top is fatigue with the current federal government, and the impacts some regions of the country are having on the federal fortunes.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are polling higher than the Liberals and the NDP.

"When the numbers start turning in Ontario, because it is the biggest part of the subsample, they move the national numbers," said Nanos.

In Ontario

  • Liberal 33.3
  • Conservative 41.4
  • NDP 21.4

"What we've seen is, coincidentally with the provincial election, the Liberal numbers going down... When people hear the word 'Liberal' in Ontario, they’re not thinking positive thoughts," Nanos said. "I think the Liberals have to hope that this phenomenon in Ontario is a short-term thing fiercely related to the provincial election."

Amid the ongoing uncertainty around the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, Liberal support is the lowest in the prairies, where they are doing worse than both the Conservatives and the NDP.

"It's a lock," Nanos said of the Conservative stronghold in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

This boost to the Conservatives comes despite the Liberal government’s backing of Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley in the push for the Trans Mountain project to get built.

In the Prairies:

  • Liberal 18.1
  • Conservative 53.1
  • NDP 19.5

As for British Columbia, the Conservatives are tied for support with the Liberals, and both are doing better than the NDP, which is federally onside with B.C. NDP Premier.

In British Columbia

  • Liberal 33
  • Conservative 33
  • NDP 16.3

"It speaks to British Columbia being in play. It’s like that confluence of pipeline politics and the environment and the Liberals getting squeezed and people getting grumpy on that front," Nanos said.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, who is celebrating his one-year anniversary of leading the party, now is the time to try to capitalize, Nanos said.

"For Andrew Scheer this is an opportunity. He’s got to nail the Liberal brand in Ontario and try to kind of spread the provincial malaise up to the federal level in order to consolidate some of the Conservative gains that are looking to happen right now," said Nanos.

The survey was conducted between May 20 and May 25, using a national random landline and cellphone survey of 1,000 adult Canadians. The margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.