Who’s winning the social media game in the Liberal leadership race?

AJ Cordeiro from the Sachedina/CTV News Fellowship Project says Carney has dominated social media in the Liberal leadership race.

The federal Liberals will reveal the victor in the battle to lead the party in a matter of days, and in the final stretch, the fight on social media is intensifying.

With just three days to go—and a couple of days after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian imports—each candidate is making a final push to position themselves as the best person to lead the party and the country.

Since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Jan. 6, Liberal leadership hopefuls have actively courted supporters online. Using platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and Instagram to amplify their messages was critical in shaping public perception and mobilizing support beyond tried and true methods such as door-knocking, television ads, and rallies.

A CTV News social media investigation examined digital activity from candidates since the Liberal leadership race began.

Who’s in the lead?

While all candidates used social media to bolster their campaigns, Mark Carney emerged as the clear digital front-runner. His campaign maintained consistently high engagement across platforms, particularly on X, where his economic policy posts received substantial retweets and discussions.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada’s campaign messaging focused heavily on the economy, stability and leadership, with over 971 posts across the three platforms observed.

His top words include “build,” “economy,” “change,” and “together.” On Facebook, where older demographics engage more, he leads in engagement per post. He garnered over 844,958 likes, 535,559 comments, and 52,201 shares.

Former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland’s campaign has leaned into themes of resilience and opposition to right-wing populism, frequently mentioning U.S. President Donald Trump.

Freeland’s top-performing words include “fight,” “Trump,” “vote,” and “commit.” On X, she had the highest number of posts (500) but lagged behind her fellow contenders in engagement. She also led with the highest number of posts on Instagram but received nowhere near the view counts of Carney (306,776 vs. 2,059,377).

• Complete coverage of the Liberal leadership race

Former cabinet minister Karina Gould performed well on Facebook, leveraging grassroots engagement, but lacked the cross-platform reach and viral traction that propelled Carney to the forefront. Her top words include “plan,” “support,” “generation,” and “future.” While her messaging focuses on progressive policies, it has not driven high engagement.

Meanwhile, former MP and businessman Frank Baylis carved out a niche audience focused on diversity and inclusion, but his overall engagement levels were lower than the top contenders.

Like much of social media today, bot accounts, or automated programs, are a concern. These are used to influence conversation through likes and even comments. This analysis does not consider these bots and solely looks at the activity around the candidates.

Contenders on social media

CTV News analyzed each candidate’s social media strategy using a machine learning technique, used to group similar pieces of text based on their content. Here’s what CTV News found for each candidate’s distinct digital persona shaped by their topic cluster analysis.

• Mark Carney: The statesman. His keywords—build, economy, change, together, and plan—suggested a focus on long-term stability and pragmatic governance rather than reactionary politics.
• Chrystia Freeland: The fighter. Her urgent and combative messaging included her most frequently used words fight, Trump, commit, vote, and stand. She consistently framed her campaign as a battle, often invoking the U.S. president’s name and positioning herself against right-wing populism.
• Karina Gould: The policy scholar. Her messaging is forward-looking and focused on progressive policy, particularly intergenerational issues. Her keywords—plan, support, generation, future, and innovation—focused on long-term policy and social development rather than high-conflict political narratives. However, her content struggled to break through the digital noise due to a lack of engagement-driving tactics.
• Frank Baylis: The community builder. His campaign focuses on inclusion, entrepreneurship, and Black Canadian advocacy. His key terms—race, Black, campaign, leaders, and future—suggested a focus on diversity, entrepreneurship, and social justice. While not widely viral, his engagement was steady among niche audiences.

Influence of U.S. politics

Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canadian imports added a new dimension to the candidates’ campaigns. This external pressure prompted candidates to address U.S.-Canada relations directly in their messaging and debates.

During debates held in Montreal last week, the candidates discussed their strategies for handling Trump’s tariff threats. Carney emphasized leveraging his experience with financial crises and proposed dollar-for-dollar tariffs in response. Freeland highlighted her role in negotiating the USMCA and suggested retaliatory tariffs on specific U.S. goods. Baylis proposed collaborating with Mexico to form a unified strategy against U.S. tariffs. At the same time, Gould advocated for a “Team Canada” approach, aiming to engage American businesses and citizens about the impact of tariffs.

This mirrored strategies employed on social media as U.S. politics became a dominant theme in candidates’ social media messaging:

• Carney positioned himself as a strong defender of Canada’s sovereignty, repeatedly stating that Canada would “never be part of the United States in any way, shape, or form.” He also targeted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, stating he “worships the man.” (X, Facebook, Instagram)
• Freeland framed Trump as the “gravest threat Canada has faced since the Second World War,” warning that he was engaged in “economic warfare” and “wants to redraw our borders.” (Instagram)
• Gould strongly criticized Poilievre for adopting what she called “Trump-style politics,” referring to him as “Timbit Trump.” She also positioned herself as an economic protector, warning that Trump’s latest tariff threats risked Canadian jobs. Gould emphasized standing “shoulder to shoulder” with labour leaders and businesses against U.S. economic pressure. (X, Instagram)
• Baylis positioned himself as the candidate best suited to stand up to Trump, repeatedly stating he had the “background to fight Trump’s influence.” (X, Instagram)

These discussions underscored the candidates’ recognition of U.S. policies’ profound impact on Canada’s economy and political landscape. (CTV News)

• Which leader would Canadians prefer to negotiate with Donald Trump?

Attention from federal opposition

The U.S. president was not the only political figure that candidates also focused their attention on. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was mentioned 77 times across three monitored social media platforms, with most mentions occurring around the debates.

The bulk of activity centred around the candidates debates at the end of February.

By contrast, Poilievre mentioned candidates 126 times, but his focus was limited. He initially highlighted both Carney and Freeland before narrowing in on Carney as the race progressed. Gould was mentioned once, while Baylis received no attention.

Which platform held the most power?

Not all social media platforms played an equal role during the Liberal leadership race. X remained a hub for breaking news and political discourse, while Facebook was a key platform for engaging older demographics. Instagram, meanwhile, became increasingly important for reaching younger voters through visual storytelling.

• On X, the majority of posts by candidates only featured text, the lowest with Baylis (62.2 per cent) and the highest with Freeland (85.8 per cent)
• On Facebook, over 90 per cent of all candidate posts featured text and images.
• On Instagram, video content was key to several candidates, with over 70 per cent of Carney’s posts featuring that media type.

Impact of digital strategy on Canadian elections

This was not the first time social media played a decisive role in Canadian politics. Trudeau’s 2015 campaign was widely recognized for its innovative digital strategy, leveraging Facebook and X to connect with voters in ways his rivals did not.

With the Liberal leadership decision about to be reached on March 9, the candidates have ramped up their online presence in the final days, refining their messages and doubling down on engagement tactics.

While social media alone will not determine the next Liberal leader, it provides a revealing glimpse into who effectively resonated with voters. Whether digital traction will translate into real-world wins will be determined by Liberal Party voters.

With additional data analysis from Valérie Brunet