Eric Ham: The X-factor in CUSMA talks; a defiant Congress versus an enraged president

CTV News’ U.S. Political Analyst Eric Ham on the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling and the political implications for the president and the administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to signal his intentions to walk away from CUSMA, but doing so might not be as easy as it seems.

In recent weeks, Washington lawmakers have doubled down on their collective support for U.S.-Canada trade relations. The House of Representatives stunned the White House by passing a resolution rebuking the Trump Administration, seeking to repeal stifling tariffs on Canadian goods entering the U.S.

Moreover, during a recent Senate hearing, Republican Mike Crapo extolled the benefits of the trade pact that has defined the region for years. Clearly, the divide between Congress and the White House is widening. In fact, it’s becoming increasingly clear that abandoning CUSMA will not be supported by the legislative branch, setting up a battle royale between the two branches of government.

Congress holds the real power

Many Washington experts believe that based on the way the language was written by Congress in 2018, its functioning role is to solely provide “consultation” to the executive branch during the review of CUSMA. However, because ratification of the trade agreement was required to make the signature pact law, those very lawmakers now see far greater leverage in determining the trade deal’s future.

Inu Manak, a Senior Fellow for International Trade with the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was Congress that passed legislation, making CUSMA the law of the land. Therefore, Capitol Hill will now need to pass additional legislation rescinding language that created the very statute. A move lawmakers will be hesitant to do in light of the seismic ruling by the Supreme Court striking down most of Trump’s tariffs.

This means as both Washington and Ottawa feverishly attempt to cement their respective standing heading into the all important talks this summer, congress, not the White House, could ultimately determine the final outcome of trade between the two nations. Undoubtedly after the successful passage of House Joint Resolution 72, the White House’s leverage going into the review of CUSMA has been greatly diminished. The Senate is expected to take up the resolution soon. The resolution will certainly gain momentum with Republican senators in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs.

Now that the courts have weighed in and severely neutered the president on tariffs, it is an open question how much support the White House has in the upper chamber. Still, a massive rebuke by Trump’s own party and base. Enraged by the rare show of disloyalty, President Trump has already excoriated GOP lawmakers for attempting to excise his signature economic policy.

Not stopping there, he has already taken to his Truth Social platform, threatening lawmakers’ careers as the respective primary campaign season heats up. Recognizing the economic disaster the tariffs are having in their respective states, members of the president’s own party are ignoring the warnings crossing the aisle to side with democrats.

Creating even more consternation, President Trump’s latest escalation against the Gordie Howe International Bridge in Michigan could also backfire on the White House. Forcing elected officials from the Great Lakes State into a political bind, Trump could further embolden lawmakers to stand up to efforts to destabilize Canada.

Trump forces Congress’s hand — again

Manak described Congress as “worried and definitely paying attention even if Republicans are very afraid of challenging the president.” Efforts to choke off millions passing through the U.S. and Canada on a daily basis would force lawmakers into a very difficult position politically with elections just around the corner. Either stand up to their president or stand with their constituents. A weary and dispirited electorate already being squeezed by record import duties now staring down more economic calamity as Trump’s irrational ire towards Canada continues unabated.

Efforts to force delays, thereby stalling the opening of the multi-billion dollar gateway connecting two once-close trade partners and neighbours creating more collateral damage in the process. Once again, the president zealously sought to force Canada’s hand and in doing so, has now forced the hand of Congress. Continued attacks; Americans under siege; unpredictability that is stifling markets; challenging alliances; and upending key agreements. A dormant, weak, and feeble Congress that was relegated to a mere footnote in Trump’s winding and growing narrative is grudgingly finding its voice.

The opposition party meanwhile is being energized by opportunity, while MAGA loyalists are being pushed and prodded by a wailing and desperate constituency. Strange bedfellows indeed, but forced to act in unison to stave off political defeat at the ballot box. Perfect timing, indeed, for Canadian negotiators hopeful that the petulant president once again gets in his own way and they’re able to ride out the clock to a changing of the guard in Congress. A change that could give Ottawa the time it needs to reset. A change that could also give Americans too, time in the voting booth to also reset.