Male workers risk being disappointed when they learn about their salary increase. Their expectations are higher than what Quebec employers intend to offer. That’s one of the findings of a 2027 salary forecast survey by the Order of Chartered Human Resources Professionals, Quebec’s regulatory body for HR professionals (Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés), released Tuesday. Quebec employers expect to grant average salary increases of 3.1 per cent next year, according to the order, which compiled surveys from eight specialized firms representing the views of 1,300 Quebec employers. It marks a fourth consecutive year of moderation following the increases granted during the period of high inflation. That’s well below what men expect, according to a Léger poll commissioned by the order to support its survey. They expect an increase of 4.6 per cent. “You can see the gap there,” said Manon Poirier, the order’s director general, at a news conference Tuesday. “So, some disappointment to be expected.” Her response referred to the results for workers overall, who expect average increases of 3.7 per cent. Looking more closely, women have more modest expectations, at 2.6 per cent. The survey cannot determine why men and women have different expectations, the order’s director general said. She noted that women are more represented in sectors where increases may be “a little bit lower.” The gap between sectors is “relatively moderate,” according to the survey. Public administration expects the lowest increases, at 2.7 per cent. At the top end, employers in public utilities — electricity and gas distribution, telephone services, water treatment and other services — are expecting increases of 3.7 per cent. Studies also show that women are less comfortable negotiating their salaries, Poirier acknowledged when asked about the issue. She stressed, however, that this is only a hypothesis, since respondents did not provide the reasoning behind their expectations. Léger conducted an online survey of 529 respondents from July 31 to Aug. 3, including to gauge their salary expectations. The Canadian Research Insights Council says a margin of error cannot be assigned to online polls because they do not use random sampling of the population. Purchasing power The forecast comes as the vast majority of Quebecers are concerned about their purchasing power. Seventy-eight per cent say the cost of living represents a major or very major risk to them, according to a recent analysis by the Institut du Québec (IDQ). In August, inflation in Quebec reached 3.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, the same level as employers’ average projected salary increase. Poirier is aware that the economic context means many workers are concerned about their purchasing power. While the rising cost of living hurt the poorest 40 per cent of households from 2022 to 2025, other Quebecers did not see their purchasing power deteriorate, according to the IDQ. “The other 60 per cent of households or families, they didn’t lose purchasing power despite everything we might think,” she said, referring to the study. “There may be some education needed to tell people what happened.” In fact, the situation is relatively stable for real disposable income among the next 40 per cent of households. The wealthiest 20 per cent, meanwhile, became richer during the same period. Poirier believes that by targeting increases above 3 per cent, employers are showing they remain concerned about retaining their employees. Labour shortages are still being felt in some sectors, she explained. Anna Potvin, a partner at Normandin Beaudry, made a similar observation in a recent interview. Her firm’s research was among the eight surveys analyzed by the order to establish its forecast. Economic uncertainty and the replacement of certain tasks by artificial intelligence may have weighed on hiring, but the desire to retain employees remains, Potvin observed. “During the pandemic, the experience of the Great Resignation, followed by having to recruit, I think organizations were a little burned by that,” she said. By Stéphane Rolland This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 15, 2026.
