Super Tuesday’s results cemented the race nobody seems to want.
The matchup pits a septuagenarian against an octogenarian. Both candidates' approval ratings have languished for years. Perennially negative media narratives of both men augur the dread shaping the electorates political psyche.
The erosion of women’s reproductive rights is accelerating; a broken immigration system is pushing some states to the brink of economic collapse; war and global conflict are intensifying; all the while, democracy at home hangs in the balance. Now, the fate of it all is in the hands of a politician many see as past his expiration date, or a morally bankrupt narcissist hell-bent on vengeance.
Poll after poll has shown voters eschewing this matchup. As evidence, ex-president Donald Trump perennially underperformed polling expectations in all early primary states. Moreover, an Emerson Poll shows 63% of Nikki Haley voters say they will support President Biden over Donald Trump in the general election in November.
This all comes as the former commander-in-chief is weeks away from facing off in criminal court against the Manhattan D.A. Juxtapose Trump's myriad challenges with President Biden’s floundering approval ratings and steady drumbeat of protestations to his Administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and it is clear voters see their choices as stark, at best.
Even amid overwhelming victories, red flags for both candidates abound. President Biden is now the first incumbent in 44 years to lose a primary (President Jimmy Carter lost in 1980), even after securing more than 80% of the vote in nearly all of his wins.
Stratospheric fundraising numbers posted by the Biden campaign certainly makes him a formidable candidate. Yet, the bulk of those resources will be used to boost anemic approval ratings and fight to win back “Uncommitted” voters in key states like battleground Michigan and nearby Minnesota. Such persistent struggles further erode enthusiasm and support for an incumbent seeking a second term.
Compounding voter apathy is the persistent criminal uncertainty of GOP nominee, Donald Trump. Jury selection begins March 25 in a Manhattan courtroom for just one of four criminal trials in which if he were to be found guilty (in all cases), he could spend the rest of his life in prison. Prior indictments and massive judgements were political props expertly choreographed and deployed by the former reality television star to animate and energize his MAGA base of supporters.
Ironically, the more popular Trump became with each indictment and courtroom appearance, the more uncertain general election voters, particularly suburban voters, have become of his prospects in November. Not to mention manifold questions the specter of criminal liability poses for the fate of the nation should he actually get elected.
Now the rematch, four years in the making, is set. Uncertainty is ubiquitous. Weariness is pervasive. An electorate utterly demoralized. American democracy, that grand tricentennial experiment, is on the brink and voters are unclear how to process this moment in time.
Alas, President Biden’s recent annual State of the Union provided his base a glimmer of hope. For 68-minutes “sleepy Joe” turned that narrative on its head. His fiery, energetic address turned the clock back at least for a night. He went after Trump nearly 13 times though never mentioning him by name. He sparred with Republicans in the chamber; name-checked the Supreme Court; and offered up a wish list of priorities that appealed to his base.
Still, though Biden admittedly delivered on a night he absolutely needed too, one night will not reverse years-long concerns and pervasive doubts surrounding his mental acuity and fitness to serve.
Now, as inertia further plagues Washington, voter apathy deepens. Speaker Mike Johnson is taking cues from Donald Trump as the now GOP nominee tightens his grip on the party. Legislative breakthroughs, that would go a long way in easing fears and concerns of an anxious nation, are nearly impossible. Unfortunately, petty politics becomes more pervasive and only cements the plethora of crises facing the nation.
The U.S. southern border grows less secure with each passing day; the war in Europe further emboldens America’s enemies; and women’s reproductive rights are under siege. Congressional paralysis only furthers the growing disdain and frustration millions of Americans have for the titular heads of their respective parties. Meanwhile, each side is readying their opening salvos in what will be a brutal, attack-filled, election hellscape.
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Presidential elections were once marked as grand exercises determining the nation's future. A battle of ideas characterized by would-be leaders shaping a vision that potentially bolsters and fortifies the republic. Throughout American history, presidential candidates have offered striking strategies leading an ever-evolving democracy to the zenith of global influence.
However, the 2024 presidential election will be different. No high-minded vision or grand strategy will breakthrough. This election will be a race to the bottom and at stake is the question: will the United States continue to exist as the framers intended or bend to the will and forces of autocracy?
Amid this existential question, voters are tasked with choosing an incumbent whose moderation and adherence to technocracy is largely dismissed as outdated, or a serial liar whose quixotic desire to destroy everything he touches yearns for a second chance to finish the job he started on January 6, 2021.
Abraham Lincoln, certainly no stranger to the growing temptations to steer a country down a dangerous path, offered:
"Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters."
A cautionary tale, indeed, and one voters should heed as they ruminate over their choice for president. The wrong choice and the fire Lincoln describes can go beyond blisters; it can and will, if voters let it, consume.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.
