If inflation is cooling, why are some items still so expensive?
The latest data released by Statistics Canada sparks this question, showing a short decline in some prices as others continue to soar.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released April 18, marks a 4.4 per cent rise year over year in April, following a 4.3 per cent jump in March. According to Statistics Canada, “this was the first acceleration in headline consumer inflation since June 2022.”
The data shows that, on a year-over-year basis, higher rent prices and mortgage interest costs added the most to the “all-items” CPI increase in April 2023, whereas, on a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.7 per cent in April (following a 0.5 per cent gain in March).
Here’s a hot-to-cold snapshot of Canada’s inflation impact.
GASOLINE
The data reveals that, on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.6 per cent. Gasoline prices contributed to the largest jump in costs, with data showing a month-over-month increase of 6.3 per cent in April compared to March.
Without the prices of gasoline, the monthly CPI rose 0.5 per cent.
Statistics Canada calls this “the largest monthly increase since October 2022.”
Various factors contribute to jumps in gasoline prices, including OPEC+’s reduction of oil output, switches to summer blends and an increase in carbon levies, according to Statistics Canada.
Despite all this upward pressure, the average Canadian gas price was 7.7 per cent lower in April of this year compared to April 2022, when prices reached record highs in the months that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The data also shows natural gas prices have slowed, increasing by 0.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, compared with a 13.4 per cent rise in March. Factors such as lower delivery fees and a smaller natural gas price increase in Ontario (4.6 per cent) contributed to this slowdown, according to the data.
MORTGAGE AND RENT
Also according to CPI data, general housing costs increased an average of 4.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, which follows March’s 5.4 rise.
Canadians paid more in mortgage interest in April of this year, with an increase of 28.5 per cent over April 2022.
This is a result of higher volumes of initiated or renewed mortgages, all of which fell under higher rates, the data shows.
Statistics Canada says that higher interest rates may have fanned the flames of rising rental costs month over month as well, creating a “higher rental demand.” CPI data suggest rent was up an average of 6.1 per cent in April 2023, compared to the same month last year.
Despite these month-over-month increases, the year-over-year increase in the homeowner’s replacement cost index slowed for April, standing at an increase of 0.2 per cent.
GROCERIES
Despite the dramatic impact of inflation seen at Canadian grocery stores over the last year, prices for groceries rose at a slower rate in April (9.1 per cent) than in March (9.7 per cent). As Statistics Canada reports, this slowdown could be a result of smaller cost increases in fresh produce, coffee and tea.
The cost increases for fresh vegetables, for instance, managed to slow year-over-year in April (8.8 per cent) compared with March (10.8 per cent).
Lettuce is considered a primary driver of this descent, with a 3.3 per cent decrease in prices (a steep drop from record levels in December 2022).
Adding to this downward trend, coffee and tea prices increased by 6.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis. While the data shows the price is continuing to climb, the increase is much less than in March, when Canadians paid 11.1 per cent more for a caffeine fix.
Despite those glimmers of hope for those hoping for inflation relief, fresh fruit continued to rise, with an 8.3 per cent increase year over year in April, preceded by a 7.1 per cent increase in March. This rise was primarily driven by a 12.0 per cent cost increase in oranges.
