Nearly $100,000 was wagered on mayoral races in and around Waterloo region on an online prediction market platform during Ontario’s municipal election, raising questions about the influence of online betting on voters. The bets were placed on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events, including elections. Despite restrictions preventing Ontario residents from using the platform, more than $25,000 was wagered on the Waterloo mayoral race, while bets on Kitchener’s mayoral contest totalled just under $7,500. Cambridge and Guelph saw more than $15,000 and $16,000 wagered, respectively. In Stratford, the total exceeded $31,500. Combined, the five races attracted nearly $100,000 in wagers. Simon Kiss, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, said the people participating in these markets likely represent only a small portion of voters. “I think it probably represents a small segment of the electorate that’s actually engaged in the betting,” Kiss said. Experts warn that even a relatively small betting market could affect how people perceive an election. How prediction markets work Unlike traditional polling, which asks people about their voting intentions, prediction markets allow users to put money behind an anticipated outcome. On Polymarket, users buy and sell contracts tied to specific events. Many are structured around a yes-or-no question, with the value of a contract changing as traders respond to new information and adjust their expectations. The prices can be interpreted as the market’s implied probability of an outcome, but they are not the same as a scientific poll or a guarantee of what will happen. Markets can cover a wide range of subjects, including politics, economics, sports and entertainment. Polymarket banned in Ontario Polymarket is serving a two-year ban in Ontario following an April 2025 settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission. The agreement prohibits the platform’s operators from trading in securities or derivatives for two years and includes a $200,000 administrative penalty and $25,000 in costs. The settlement also requires measures to prevent Ontario residents from trading on the platform. The restrictions stem from violations of Ontario securities law rather than a ban imposed specifically because of the municipal election wagers. The settlement and related undertakings also require Polymarket to maintain restrictions on Ontario users. The broader regulatory landscape for prediction markets has also evolved. In April 2026, the Canadian Securities Administrators and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) reiterated that platforms and firms facilitating event-contract trading must comply with applicable securities and derivatives laws. CIRO has authorized certain investment dealers to offer a limited range of event contracts, but its rules prohibit those dealers from offering contracts based on election results or other political events. That limited authorization does not mean Canadians can freely use any international prediction market. A virtual private network, or VPN, can make a user’s internet connection appear to originate from another location. Kiss described it as a technical way to make websites or internet service providers believe a person is somewhere else. However, using a VPN does not override a platform’s terms or applicable legal restrictions. In a statement to CTV News, a Polymarket spokesperson said users in restricted jurisdictions are prohibited from trading on its global platform or using tools intended to circumvent geographic restrictions. “Polymarket maintains compliance and market integrity measures designed to detect and address prohibited activity on the platform, including unauthorized access from restricted jurisdictions and other violations of its Terms of Service,” the spokesperson said. The company said those measures include on-chain monitoring, third-party compliance tools and internal review processes. Could betting influence voters? The volume of money wagered on a race does not necessarily indicate how many people are participating, how voters intend to cast their ballots or how representative the market is of the electorate. However, the prices and implied probabilities generated by prediction markets can circulate online and shape perceptions of which candidates are favoured. Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said that creates a potential avenue for people to influence the political conversation. “It’s a very cheap way to influence voters, because it might create a different probability where an incumbent might be losing or winning, and it will create confusion among voters,” Nanos said. A market that suggests a candidate is likely to win could be interpreted as a sign of momentum, while a sudden change in a candidate’s perceived chances could raise questions about their standing. Those signals, however, may not reflect the views of the broader electorate. Nanos said there are important unknowns about the people placing bets, their motivations and whether the activity reflects public opinion. “We don’t know who’s betting. We don’t know what they might be trying to accomplish. We don’t know whether they’re trying to influence a particular outcome, and we don’t even know whether it’s representative or not,” he said. For that reason, Nanos said pollsters do not rely on Polymarket’s predictions as a substitute for conventional polling. Traditional polls use defined sampling and research methods to measure the views of a target population, while prediction markets reflect the activity of people willing and able to trade on a particular outcome. The two measure different things. A growing role for political prediction markets The interest in wagering on elections is not limited to municipal contests or Ontario. Prediction markets have attracted attention during major political events, including federal elections, as users look for ways to predict the outcome of races. Nanos expects interest in political betting to continue growing. “We’ll probably see more and more people placing bets or wanting to place bets on political events,” he said. Whether those markets become a more prominent part of election coverage, however, will depend in part on how the public interprets their predictions and how regulators address the platforms’ activities.
