Canadians divided on ballot-box question in federal election: Leger poll

It's still early in the federal election campaign, and another opinion poll is showing the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck.

OTTAWA — A new poll suggests Canadians are divided about what the key issue is in the federal election.

The survey, conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press, reports that 36 per cent of respondents say the important question in this election is who is best to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump and aggressive U.S. trade actions.

Another 33 per cent say the key question is who is best suited to change the direction Canada has taken over the last few years and improve life for Canadians.

Twenty-four per cent of respondents say the most important question is who is best to “strengthen and grow” Canada’s economy.

The poll surveyed 1,599 Canadians between March 21 and 23, which includes the first day of the election campaign and the two days leading into it.

Because the poll was conducted online, it can’t be assigned a margin of error.

The survey suggests Liberals are much more likely to focus on who can deal with Trump and tariffs, at 59 per cent. On the other hand, only 15 per cent of Conservatives said that was the biggest issue.

Similarly, 56 per cent of Conservatives said the most important question is who is best to change the direction Canada has taken over the past four to five years and improve life for Canadians, while only 15 per cent of Liberals chose that as the key issue.

Twenty-five per cent of Liberals and Conservatives said the key question is who is best to strengthen and grow Canada’s economy.

Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, says this is the first time Leger has asked this question. He says Leger was trying to understand what key issue Canadians would choose — Trump, change or the economy?

“What is interesting here is the partisan split,” Dallaire said, adding that Conservative supporters say the key issue in the election is about change while Liberal supporters say it’s about Trump.

“Bloc supporters also say it’s about Trump, with NDP supporters being more divided, but also putting Trump first. That speaks to the importance of the Trump factor outside of conservative circles,” Dallaire said.

On top of the new question about the key issue in the federal election, Leger has also been asking Canadians to rank the No. 1 issue facing the country. A Leger poll released earlier this month suggested that the trade war with the United States is the biggest source of political anxiety for Canadians, knocking inflation out of the top spot.

That trend continued in the most recent poll, with 32 per cent of respondents saying that Trump, tariffs and U.S. aggression are the top issues. That’s compared to 21 per cent who said inflation and 10 per cent who said health care and housing affordability are the top issues.

The latest survey also suggests that the federal Liberals are pushing further ahead of the Conservatives in voter support, and almost one in two Canadians surveyed said they think the Liberals will win the election.

The poll reports that 44 per cent of decided voters surveyed would vote Liberal in the upcoming election, ahead of the Conservatives at 38 per cent. The poll had the NDP at only six per cent.

• Complete coverage of the 2025 federal election
• Liberals and Conservatives taking their federal election campaigns to Quebec
• NDP proposes boost to untaxed income threshold, removal of GST on ‘essentials’
• Rising prices take centre stage in federal election as cost-of-living weighs on voters
• What Sydney, N.S. wants from their political leaders in the next federal government
• The future of capital gains taxes in Canada, post-election
• The cuts and promises of the carbon tax and its impact on Canadians

Dallaire said the poll results confirm that the rise of Liberal Leader Mark Carney is directly linked to Canadians’ high level of concern with Trump’s aggressive stance towards Canada.

“His base is the most likely to see this as the ballot-box question,” Dallaire said. “On the flip side, Conservative voters continue to focus on the need for change, as they have for the past two years.

“This is the message that (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre is likely to hammer home for the next month: Carney is not change.”

Dallaire said results could change in the coming weeks if economic concerns, including how to control inflation and avoid a potential recession, take a more prominent role as the effects of tariffs come into clearer focus.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 26, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press