Oilers’ playoff schedule undecided as fight for Pacific Division seeding goes down to wire

Edmonton, Vegas, Anaheim and Los Angeles are all jockeying for first place in the Pacific Division. Draisaitl says he will be back for playoffs.

While the National Hockey League playoffs begin on Saturday, the Edmonton Oilers haven’t yet set out a welcome mat for their first-round opponent or packed their bags for the U.S.

That’s because Connor McDavid and Co. could finish first in the Pacific Division, last in the Western Conference and several positions in between even with the NHL in the dying days of the regular season.

In other words, their future is wide open with just one game to go in the schedule: Thursday’s home date with the last-place Vancouver Canucks.

It’s not as simple as Win And You’re In First for the Oilers, though.

Far from it. The Oilers, currently second in their division, need to win while their rivals lose, basically.

The playoff picture is so up in the air that any one of the four Pacific teams that have made the playoffs can finish anywhere from first to fourth in the division, depending on how the final games of the regular season play out over the next three nights.

That means the Oilers could very well face the Los Angeles Kings, the division rival they have beaten in the first round the last four post-seasons, yet again.

Oilers finish 1st in Pacific if ...

• They win on Thursday;
• The Vegas Golden Knights, who sit first in the Pacific and a point ahead of the Oilers heading into NHL action on Tuesday, lose at home to the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday;
• The Anaheim Ducks, third place in the Pacific and a point behind the Oilers, lose at least one of their two remaining games.

The crystal ball is foggy for Vegas (isn’t it always for any given game?) as the Golden Knights head into the game unbeaten (5-0-1) since John Tortorella took over as head coach from Bruce Cassidy.

There’s a big ‘but,’ however: The Kraken have beaten the Knights three times already this campaign, although all of them were one-goal losses, with two of them in extra time.

One cannot underestimate teams in the position to play ‘spoiler,’ particularly if they missed the playoffs late in the season like Seattle.

Oilers finish 2nd in Pacific if ...

• They lose on Thursday, Anaheim loses both their games or gets just one overtime/shootout point, and Los Angeles gets just two points over their two remaining games;
• They win Thursday but so does Vegas, Anaheim loses both their games or gets just one overtime/shootout point;
• They win Thursday, Vegas loses Wednesday and Anaheim wins both their games, and L.A. earns just two points.

The Oilers enjoy tiebreaker advantages over three of the four teams with whom they’re jostling for playoff position. Just the Utah Mammoth, the Central Division club that’s currently in the first Western wild-card spot, have one more regulation win than the Oilers (32 vs. 31) and one fewer overall point (90 to Edmonton’s 91). And the Golden Knights, Ducks and Kings can’t catch the Oilers in the regulation wins statistic, the first tiebreaker on the NHL’s list if they ended up tied in points.

If Edmonton beats Vancouver, Los Angeles can’t pass them for this very reason, as even if the Kings win both their remaining games, they’d end up with eight fewer regulation wins than the Oilers despite tying them in points.

Oilers finish 3rd in Pacific if ...

• They win on Thursday but so does Vegas on Wednesday and Anaheim wins both their games;
• They lose, the Ducks earn two points over their last two games and the Kings either win one of their games or lose both.

The Ducks have a golden opportunity to leapfrog at least the Oilers as, unlike Edmonton with just a single game left, they have two matchups remaining: Tuesday at the Minnesota Wild and Thursday at the Nashville Predators.

The Ducks face two problems, however: they have the most difficult remaining schedule of the five teams I’m highlighting here. The Wild are a 100-plus point team, while the surprising Predators missed out on a playoff berth by mere hairs.

Anaheim has also been sputtering down the stretch. They did enjoy first place in the Pacific for the better part of a month before Edmonton then Vegas overtook them in recent days as they went 3-5-2 over their last 10 games.

Although both their remaining games are on the road, Los Angeles has a favourable schedule as they play bottom-feeding Calgary and Vancouver.

Oilers finish in West’s 1st wild-card position if ...

• They lose on Thursday, Anaheim gets two points via a win or two OT/SO losses, L.A. records at least a win and an OT/SO loss, and Utah loses both their remaining games.

As already mentioned, the Mammoth holds the first tiebreaker, regulation wins, over the Oilers.

If division rivals Anaheim and L.A. pull out enough points to push Edmonton down into wild-card territory, the Oilers would need the Mammoth to drop both their remaining games to finish in the first wild-card spot and play the Pacific winner, which in this scenario could be either the Golden Knights, the Ducks or – if Vegas loses Wednesday, Anaheim manages two points or less and L.A. wins out – the Kings.

Oilers finish in West’s 2nd wild-card position if ...

• They lose on Thursday, Anaheim gets two points via a win or two OT/SO losses, L.A. records at least a win and an OT/SO loss, and Utah gets one point over their two remaining games.

The consolation prize: a first-round series against the President’s Trophy winners as the NHL’s best regular-season team, the Colorado Avalanche.

Considering how tightly Monday’s game between the Oilers and the Avalanche was played – despite the absences of star Oilers forwards Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman plus all-world Avs defenceman Cale Makar – such a playoff round could be a seven-game behemoth.

Regardless of their finish, Oilers playoff tickets are now on sale.