What would it take for Alberta to become independent?

CTV News Edmonton's Nicole Weisberg takes a look at the next steps if Alberta votes to separate from Canada.

As the group campaigning for a potential referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada continues to gather signatures, one law professor says even a majority bid for independence would not mean Alberta “magically becomes an independent country.”

“All that we can say for certain is that there would be an unprecedented legal, political and constitutional situation in Alberta,” said University of Alberta law professor Eric Adams.

After Quebec’s 1995 referendum on separation, which saw a decision to stay in Canada on a razor-thin margin, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that no province had the right to unilaterally secede from Canada.

The federal government, provinces and other stakeholders would have to work together in good faith to try to come up with a resolution, Adams explained.

“The only thing that a referendum does is signal to the world and to the rest of Canada that there is this serious issue in Alberta,” he said. “The other thing that it signals and triggers is what the Supreme Court of Canada has said is a duty to negotiate some kind of change to the constitutional state of affairs.”

Stay Free Alberta, the group leading the charge in signature collection for a potential referendum question on Alberta independence, needs nearly 178,000 signatures by May 2 in order to be brought before the legislature.

The group previously said it has already met the signature threshold and would continue campaigning until the deadline.

Read more: NDP launch campaign to keep Alberta in Canada as court hearings proceed

Premier Danielle Smith said should the group be successful, a question on Alberta’s separation from Canada could be added to an October referendum ballot.

Adams says even if the province should get to that point, actual separation would rely on “complex, radical, extensive and immense” constitutional amendments agreed on by each of Canada’s major players, the likes of which have never been accomplished before.

“There would be ongoing negotiations about the national parks, about the public debt, about the military, about the currency, about treaties, about Indigenous rights, and on and on and on,” he said.

It would also, he says, raise the question of whether Smith’s UCP government would lead the negotiations, since the party was not elected on a separation mandate.

Alberta independence and treaty rights

An Edmonton courtroom was hearing the third day of arguments for and against citizen-led petitions, particularly when they involve separating from Canada, on Thursday afternoon.

Multiple First Nations groups launched challenges of Stay Free Alberta’s petition, arguing the referendum process and its use by separatists violates treaty rights, including the duty to consult.

Alberta government lawyers have argued that there is no duty to consult unless the province takes policy action on separation.

Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation is seeking an injunction to put the separation petition on pause. Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and the Blackfoot Confederacy are seeking a stay preventing confirmation of the petition’s results until there’s a court decision.

On Thursday, Stay Free Alberta lawyer Jeff Rath submitted that no rights are being infringed, nor would they be should Alberta successfully separate from Canada.

“(It) doesn’t infringe the right to hunt, doesn’t infringe the right to fish, doesn’t infringe the right to trap … All of those rights continue to exist, continue to be exercised throughout the process,” he told Justice Shaina Leonard.

Adams said there was once again no clear precedent for how Indigenous rights and treaties would play into separation talks, adding that the Supreme Court mandated these elements to be considered after Quebec’s referendum, but did not go into detail.

On Friday, Leonard granted a stay that would delay the certification of Stay Free Alberta’s signatures until a final decision was made on the constitutionality of the petition.

Building a new nation

If Stay Free Alberta’s petition were to make it to a referendum question, and that question were to get a majority vote, and constitutional amendments were successfully made with the blessing of each province and the feds, then and only then would Alberta begin its nation-building.

And that, economist Moshe Lander says, is a decidedly expensive venture.

“You need border control, which means that you’re going to need to have some sort of army. You’re going to have to have your provincial police force, you’re going to have to have a passport, you’re going to have to have a central bank,” he told CTV News Edmonton.

Read more: A roundup of Alberta separation petition discussions

Alberta does have vast oil and gas resources, but both Adams and Landers say being landlocked is a major detractor.

To complicate matters further, Adams said, international reaction – and especially reaction from our neighbours down south – is a complete wildcard in terms of support and potential tariffs should Alberta become independent.

“The truth of the matter is we are off the map of our Canadian history,” he said.

If Stay Free Alberta is not stalled by the courts and has its signatures verified after the May 2 deadline, a referendum question on separation could happen Oct. 19.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Nicole Weisberg and The Canadian Press