Byelection outcome could determine future of Poilievre’s political career: expert

Experts say the byelection race for the Battle River–Crowfoot riding is uncertain, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's future hanging in the balance.

While Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre is expected to win the byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot in August, one expert says it’s likely his capabilities will still be put under a microscope.

“I don’t know that any margin of victory in this byelection will be enough to silence the questions that are being raised about Pierre Poilievre’s leadership,” said Lori Williams, associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University.

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If Poilievre can’t hold up to his incumbent Damien Kurek – who won a whopping 82 per cent of the vote in the April election before resigning so Poilievre could have a chance at the seat after losing in his Ottawa-Carleton riding – Williams said it could give the opposition ammunition and shift the polls long-term.

“He’s not in a comfortable position right now,” Williams told CTV News Edmonton. “He wants to get back into the House of Commons and he wants to build from there, try to generate the kind of support he enjoyed prior to Mark Carney becoming the leader of the Liberal Party.”

The Battle River-Crowfoot riding is known as the strongest Tory hold in the country.

Although Poilievre is expected to win come Aug. 18, the passion seen at Tuesday’s forum in Camrose, Alta., could translate into spontaneous voter turnout that could offset the Conservative Party’s campaign, said Williams.

During the forum, members of the audience could be heard cheering and booing to remarks made by the 10 out of some 200 candidates that partook in the debate.

Several candidates made jabs at the Conservative Party leader – mainly for the fact that he does not live in the riding and is running to keep hold of his political career.

But Poilievre, who was born and raised in Calgary, said his experience as a federal party leader will give him the upper hand when dealing with Ottawa.

Camrose resident Sandra McLay said she voted for Poilievre in April and intends to do so again.

“Some of the candidates are mostly talking about provincial things and not federal,” McLay told CTV News Edmonton at Tuesday’s forum. “Pierre’s talking federally and that’s what I voted for, so I’m going to vote for that.”

Jim Davick said the other candidates need to do a little bit of homework.

“They seem hung up on things that are happening here, rather than what Poilievre can do for us across the country,” said Davick. “I’m sure he’ll represent us well.”

Even though support for Poilievre seems unwavering, Williams said she was surprised to see support for independents like Bonnie Critchley, who says the riding needs representation from a person who actually lives there.

“I firmly believe that Mounsieur Poilievre is too busy with his personal ambitions to give a rat’s backside about us,” said Critchley during her final remarks Tuesday.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Connor Hogg