‘Have a plan B and a plan C’: Expert warns of jet fuel shortages in Europe

Aviation expert John Gradek explains new EU jet fuel rules and how the war in Iran could reshape air travel around the world in the coming months.

If you’re travelling to Europe this summer, be prepared for major flight disruptions caused by jet fuel shortages.

“I think it’s going to get worse before it gets any better,” aviation management expert John Gradek told CTV’s Your Morning on Wednesday. “You’ll have short-haul flights being cancelled, long-haul flights will be rationed for fuel. So it’ll be a little bit of chaos this summer in the EU.”

• These are the airlines cancelling flights due to the Middle East conflict

Gradek, who is a faculty lecturer at McGill University, says travellers should remain aware of the situation and be ready to return home with just a few day’s notice.

“I think that if you are planning trips into Europe – and it doesn’t really matter where in Europe, I think all of Europe is going to be affected by this shortage of aviation fuel – that you’re going to be in a situation of making sure you have a plan B and a plan C,” Gradek said from Montreal. “You may have to, you know, motor it, or you may have to basically look at alternative ways of getting home.”

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Last week, the head of the International Energy Agency said Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supplies. The potential shortages come as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockades hold up fuel shipments from the Persian Gulf, which is responsible for about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply.

“I think this is the biggest crisis the airline industry has had, bar none,” Gradek explained. “We’ve had oil crises before, but they’ve always been focused on price, so the airlines have reacted in the past with surcharges. … But now this is a supply issue as well as a price issue, and once you get into a supply issue, there is no alternative fuel.”

As the Iran war causes fuel prices to increase, major European airlines like KLM and Lufthansa have already announced flight cancellations. Gradek expects jet fuel shortages will strike Europe within the next 60 to 90 days, and that some countries will run out sooner than others.

“We’ve got, you know, five or six weeks of relative peace, but come June, the airlines are going to be scrambling for suppliers and trying to find out where is it that you can in fact get fuel,” Gradek said. “There’s going to have to be some rationing, some cancellations, some reductions in services that are going to have to be happening sometime around June.”