‘No guarantee’: Life expectancy in Canada rises, but experts warn of slower gains ahead

Life expectancy in Canada rises for first time since pandemic, but the trend may not be as reassuring as it seems.

Canada’s latest life expectancy numbers suggest people are living slightly longer again, but the trend may not be as reassuring as it seems.

Data released by Statistics Canada shows that for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began, life expectancy at birth in Canada has increased, rising from 81.3 years in 2022 to 81.7 years in 2023.

But experts warn the rebound may not mark a return to steady gains.

“I think when we get the data from 2024, 2025, we’ll be back to where we were before COVID, maybe a little bit higher,” said Doug Norris, senior vice president and chief demographer at Environics Analytics in an interview with CTVNews.ca.

“But the increases we’ll see going forward, I think, are going to be a lot less than we saw 10 and 20 years ago.”

According to Statistics Canada, life expectancy increases when there are fewer deaths in general, when deaths occur predominantly at older ages, or a combination of both.

While the pandemic played a central role in reducing life expectancy in recent years, Norris points to a second factor.

“(COVID) is the factor I think most people would point to when you say the life expectancy has declined,” he said.

“There’s another really important factor that actually started to kick in well before COVID, and that’s the whole issue of deaths due to the opioid crisis and what they call accidental deaths due to drugs.”

In 2023, Canada saw 7,162 accidental drug poisoning deaths, the highest ever recorded according to Statistics Canada. The total number of these deaths in 2023 surpassed the previously reported high levels observed during the pandemic, StatCan says.

“We’re still seeing the impact of the accidental drug deaths, so we may get an increase again in life expectancy, but my guess is it will be much slower than historically we saw.” he said.

Some have mentioned the possible impact of Canada’s growing use of medical assistance in dying (MAID), which now accounts for about one in 20 deaths nationally. Norris said he does not believe the impact is significant at this point.

“My own view is that it wouldn’t be a major factor yet,” Norris said. “It might reduce life expectancy a little bit, but it’s not anywhere near the impact of the opioid crisis or of COVID.”

According to Statistics Canada, there are also other pressures shaping the national health picture, including chronic conditions linked to smoking, alcohol and inactivity.

“Obesity rates in the country have been increasing over time,” Norris said. “There probably are environmental factors that are starting to have an impact … that in the long term, will probably slow the increases we see.”

Norris said the benefits of past medical breakthroughs may also be levelling off.

“You might argue that a lot of the medical advances that have helped us live longer … maybe are not paying off to the same extent,” he said.

Still, there are reasons for cautious optimism.

COVID-19 deaths fell sharply in 2023, decreasing by 60 per cent compared to 2022, and the gender gap in life expectancy has narrowed over time.

Overall, Norris expects the national average to inch upward again, but without the momentum Canadians have grown used to.

“Where we would like it to be is we’d like to see increases year over year,” he said. “But there’s no guarantee.”