CREA now expects home sales decline in 2026 as it lowers forecast again

A real estate sign is posted outside a home in Pointe-Claire, a city in Montreal's West Island, Tuesday, May 7, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

The Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2026 again, despite a small uptick in the number of homes that changed hands in June.

CREA is now expecting a total of 463,336 residential properties to be sold throughout the year, representing a 1.4 per cent decline from 2025 — marking a reversal from its April forecast of a one per cent gain.

The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.1 per cent on an annual basis to $686,710 this year, which is around $2,000 lower than predicted in the spring.

In June, the national average sale price rose 0.5 per cent compared with a year earlier to $696,078.

CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, held steady from May to June, with the association noting it was the first time the measure didn’t decline on a month-over-month basis since January 2025. The index dropped 3.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

The association says national home sales edged up 0.9 per cent in June compared with the same month last year, while activity also ticked 0.5 per cent higher from May.

Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press