Cocoa prices are falling — but not in time for Easter

Lindt milk chocolate bunnies, Easter special edition, displayed on a shelf in a Carrefour Market supermarket in Paris, France, on March 27, 2026. (Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images via CNN)

This year’s Easter baskets will come with a higher price tag and a little less chocolate, despite lower cocoa prices.

Cocoa — the key ingredient in chocolate — has been steadily falling in price from its all-time high in 2024, when cocoa beans were trading for over US$12,000 a ton. Today, they’re about $3,300 a ton.

But that drop hasn’t trickled down to what consumers are paying. Candy prices are up 11.6 per cent in the last year, according to February’s Consumer Price Index.

The reason: The Easter chocolate on shelves today was produced using cocoa purchased at its extreme high, according to David Branch, sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

“2024 was the culmination of three successive years of unfavourable weather events in West Africa,” Branch told CNN.

West African countries are the largest suppliers of cocoa in the world. Ghana and Ivory Coast alone produce 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa. Extreme weather conditions like higher temperatures and torrential rains caused poor crop yields three years in a row.

Consecutive years of drops in production led to one of the largest-ever supply deficits of cocoa beans compared to demand. Markets reacted with “skyrocketing prices,” Branch said.

Last year, chocolate giants Hershey, Nestle, and Lindt announced price hikes because of cocoa shortages. Lindt raised prices by 19 per cent.

That’s bad news for chocolate-driven holidays. Prices for Valentine’s Day chocolate were elevated in February, and at the time, Branch said the price hikes might cool by Easter.

Americans will spend about $3.3 billion on Easter candy this year, according to the National Retail Federation. The National Confectioners Association says about 90 per cent of all Easter baskets include chocolate.

Fortunately for chocolate lovers, 2026 has seen much more favourable conditions for cocoa growth compared to last year.

“What we’ve seen this crop year is excellent weather, improved cultural practices, more cocoa plantations coming online in South America and Asia,” Branch said.

All of these factors have increased global cocoa supply, driving bean prices down—though it still might be some time until price drops hit the finished products in stores. Branch doesn’t expect relief for customers until Halloween. Even then, it might be moderate.

“I don’t think you’re going to come back down to where we were three years ago, but hopefully we’ll get some relief,” Branch said.

The cost of doing business

Cocoa beans have been the biggest driver for price increases, but rising costs in other sectors like packaging and energy have also played a role in chocolate’s heftier price tag.

Known as Manhattan’s oldest chocolatier, Li-Lac Chocolates has held off price increases — but it may not be able to for much longer.

“Either (cocoa) prices or packaging costs we could have absorbed, but both of them at the same time was brutal,” Chris Taylor, owner of Li-Lac Chocolates, told CNN. “If it continues like this, I don’t see how we could avoid price increases.”

Tariffs drove up food packaging costs in 2025. Taylor thought the Supreme Court striking down many tariffs would spare the chocolate house from raising prices, but packaging costs remain too high for that.

And the war in Iran could drive up transportation costs as a result of surging oil prices. Consumers may turn to more inexpensive store-brand chocolate rather than the big names, Branch said. Chocolate alternatives like Peeps and jelly beans could also be more popular than in previous years.

But Branch is still confident in the public’s chocolate-centred sweet tooth.

“Consumers have not lost their appetite for chocolate,” Branch said. “It’s one of the little affordable luxuries that they give themselves. Even with the higher prices, lots of consumers can’t go without it.”