What’s the overall summer forecast for Simcoe County? Climatologist breaks it down

The waterfront in Barrie, Ont. on Fri., June 19, 2026. (CTV News/Jocelyn Martin)

While summer might get off to a slow start, it will be an average one, bringing mostly comfortable conditions and typical temperatures, forecasters say.

Summer officially arrives on Sunday at 4:24 a.m.

Climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada Dave Phillips tells CTV News this summer will be one that will likely not have people complaining about the heat.

“We will have a few hot days, but it’s not going to be where we’re going to have a week or 10 days of hot, hot weather,” Phillips says. “It looks like it’s going to be more variable, little bit of this, a little bit of that, something for everybody.”

A summary of spring

According to Phillips, Canada has had the coldest spring in 24 years with Ontario and Barrie having been the coldest in about 14 years.

In addition to the cold, Phillips says May was quite wet in the Barrie area.

The region saw 70 per cent more rain than it normally sees.

“So rivers are full, ground water is there and there’s no drought,” says Phillips.

Phillips says normally Barrie gets roughly seven days a year with temperatures above 30. While the city has had four already in just May and June alone, typically when that happens, it becomes the kick-off to summer-like weather.

“They were one-day wonders or two-day wonders,” says Phillips.

However, since then, the region has had some single-degree temperatures and frost warnings.

Heading into summer

Sunday will be the longest day of the year with just as much daylight as nighttime. For Barrie and surrounding area, the dog days of summer—which are the warmest—usually come a month after the longest day.

“We don’t have that warm weather yet,” Phillips says.

Th forecast is 22 C for Sunday with the long-range forecast has temperatures in the low 20s, but the typical high for this time of year is around 24.

“It’s going to be a slow start to summer,” Phillips says.

Once summer weather does kick in, we’re in for an average, typical summer with comfortable conditions upon us.

“It’s certainly going to be one where you’re not going to have to have your air conditioning all the time,” Phillips says.

Phillips says the trend will be more changeable.

Heading into next month, forecasters are predicting a warmer-than-normal July, but we’ll likely have to wait towards the back half of the month.

“Summer could be delayed, not cancelled,” says Phillips.

How will this summer compare to last?

Last summer had many days with extreme heat consisting of both humid and dry weather.

“We had 27 days where the temperature got above 30,” says Phillips.

That’s the first time in history Barrie has had more hot days than Toronto. Usually there are seven or eight days where the temperature gets above 30.

Phillips says people who may have suffered last summer due to the extreme heat and humidity, won’t find conditions nearly as bad this summer.

Air quality

Forest fires heavily affected air quality last summer, but this summer is looking better in that department.

“Because of the coolish spring, forest fire season is not raging like it has in recent years,” says Phillips.

So far, only 5 per cent of the area in Ontario has burned, compared to worse conditions last summer.

Air quality is expected to good in Barrie this summer.

Takeaway

Phillips says while we will still get some weather events like lightning, a risk of a windstorm or a tornado and some hot and humid days, in general, conditions will be comfortable and healthy as opposed to extremes.

“There will be days that will be hot and humid, but it won’t be the personality of the summer.”

Maybe you jumped in the lake during those four 30-plus-degree days, but when it comes to our lakes warming up?

“Another couple weeks before we can run into the water, rather than tiptoe into the water,” says Phillips.

According to Phillips, here’s the takeaway:

“Overall, it won’t be like last summer, which was drier and warmer than normal. This will tend to be on the wet side, temperatures will be more pleasant and healthy and comfortable.”