‘Almost completely frozen,’ New data shows Georgian Bay ice coverage surges above historical average

A drone shot of Cook's Bay almost entirely frozen over in the winter of 2026. (Courtesy: Harpreet Walia)

Georgian Bay is almost completely frozen over.

As of Feb. 5, ice now covers most of the bay, though it has not quite reached 100 per cent.

“This rapid growth is thanks to the recent Arctic blast of below-normal temperatures affecting the eastern U.S. and the Great Lakes region,” states the Georgian Bay Association.

Data from the Canadian Ice Service and NOAA show ice coverage varies by area, with Northern Georgian Bay at roughly 90 per cent, made up largely of thin and medium lake ice. Meanwhile, Southern Georgian Bay sits near 80 per cent, with more ice in sheltered areas like Severn Sound.

“Georgian Bay is also experiencing a significant surge in ice coverage, with levels well above the historical average,” continues the Georgian Bay Association.

• Georgian Bay is almost entirely frozen, here’s what that means for winter weather

This rapid freeze, according to experts, is part of a broader incline across the Great Lakes. The combined Lake Huron–Georgian Bay system is estimated to be about 75 per cent ice-covered, far above the long-term average of 44 per cent for early February.

“This thick layer of ice has also helped decreasing local snow squalls around the Bay,” says the association.

According to NOAA data, ice coverage has climbed sharply over the past two weeks, jumping from just 5 per cent on Jan. 14 to 51 per cent by Jan. 31.

The association says Lake Erie is leading the way, now sitting at an estimated 95 per cent ice cover.

While the sudden freeze may seem extreme to some, NOAA data show there have been several years, including 1977, 1981, 1994, 2014, and 2019, with similar or higher ice levels by early February.

“Maximum ice coverage is not typically expected until mid- to late February,” says the Georgian Bay Association. “Which is great news for ice fishing and those who love winter activities on the frozen Bay.”