Surf’s up! Big waves expected from Hurricane Erin near parts of N.S. coastline

Hurricane Erin is expected to pass well south and east of the Maritimes. Stormy weather stays out to sea, but large waves are expected near the coast Friday.

While Hurricane Erin downgraded from category-four to category-two, it has increased in size and is creating a dangerous sea-state. Large, crashing waves produced by the storm are expected on parts of the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia Friday and Saturday.

Storm track

Sitting at more than 1,000 kilometres to the southeast of North Carolina, Erin is a category-two hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h.

The predicted path of the storm will take it north, passing between the southeastern U.S. seaboard and Bermuda on Thursday. During that pass, it may come within about 350 kilometres of the coastline of the Carolinas. By Friday morning, Erin will have taken a sharp turn to the northeast. The path of the storm is expected to take it south and east of Sable Island before moving towards the North Atlantic.

Given that forecast, inclement weather conditions associated with the storm are expected to remain offshore of the Maritimes.

Large, dangerous waves

While not making direct landfall, both a tropical storm and a storm surge warning have been issued for parts of the barrier islands of North Carolina. Large, dangerous waves could drive an inundation of ocean water two-to-four feet above ground level, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The weather agency advises that normally dry areas near the coast could be flooded by rising waters.

For the Maritimes, an increase in wave action on the Atlantic coastline of Nova Scotia will start Thursday, increasing for Friday and Saturday. Wave heights could reach two-to-four metres, or six-to-12 feet, for both Friday and Saturday. The South Shore of Nova Scotia is likely to have the largest, crashing waves but a rougher surf could be noticeable all the way up into Cape Breton.

Along with the waves, an increase in rip current activity is possible. Rip currents are a powerful flow of water that runs away from the shore and towards the breakwater. Swimmers caught in the current can tire themselves trying to swim against it and drown. If caught in a rip current, it is best to swim parallel to the shoreline until out of the current and then back towards shore.

No rain gains from the hurricane

It would have been beneficial to catch some of the rain on the outskirts of Hurricane Erin, but unless there is a significant change, the storm will pass too far south and east for that to happen.

Dry conditions look set to prevail for the rest of this week and likely for the weekend. The more moderate temperatures this week can help slow the loss of surface moisture via evaporation. It also makes for more comfortable conditions for the crews working to contain wildfires.

The next chance of more widespread wet weather for the Maritimes looks like next Monday. Long range computer guidance predicts a cold front from the west could bring rain and showers. That far out in the forecast there is significant uncertainty in how much rain it could potentially be but similar weather systems in the past can usually be counted on to produce rain amounts of five-to-25 millimetres.