National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

The Canadian Hurricane Centre is warning Canadians to be prepared for storms, but the impacts are not known.

The National Weather Service, as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released its first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday.

The bulletin is calling for a 60 per cent chance of an above normal season, 30 per cent chance of a near normal season, and 10 per cent chance of a below normal season.

The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major hurricane strength. Major hurricane reach category three to five. Those particularly powerful storms have sustained winds of 178 km/h or higher near their centre.

Reasons for the active season are:

• a neutral phase in the southern Pacific
• warmer than average ocean temperatures
• favourable wind environment
• more active West African Monsoon

A neutral phase in the southern Pacific, as opposed to El Nino, favours a more ideal wind environment for storm development in the Atlantic basin. During El Nino years the winds over the Atlantic basin are stronger which can work to disrupt tropical storm and hurricane development.

Tropical storms and hurricane derive their energy from warm ocean waters. Near equatorial waters in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are sitting about one-to-two degrees above average – plenty warm enough to fuel the development of occurring storms.

Finally, many of these types of storms begin as thunderstorms drifting off the western coastline of Africa over the warm Atlantic waters. A more active West African Monsoon creates more of those thunderstorms and so gives a higher chance of an increased number of tropical storms and hurricanes developing.

The NOAA forecast matches the earlier forecast issued by Colorado State University, which has long been a leading institution in hurricane research.

Atlantic Canada is an area of the country vulnerable to these type of storms, which means it’s a good idea to have a plan to contend with the weather and impacts it can have.