Both the New Democrats and the Conservatives are seeing strong numbers as they continue to distance themselves from the slumping Liberals on the Nanos Party Power Index.

For the ninth week in a row, Tom Mulcair’s NDP sit atop the index, this week with 55 points out of a possible 100.

  • NDP: 55 (no change)
  • Conservatives: 52 (up one point)
  • Liberals: 50 (no change)
  • Bloc: 33 (no change)
  • Green: 31 (no change)

Liberals lower than ever

Though the federal election has yet to be called, party leaders seem to be gearing up for a campaign -- which means the Liberals are finding themselves hitting two-year lows at an inopportune time.

When it comes to the question of preferred prime minister, Justin Trudeau, at 22 per cent, is at the lowest he’s been since 2013. For comparison, Stephen Harper leads the survey at 30 per cent, while Mulcair is close behind at 29 per cent.

Fourteen per cent of those surveyed said they were unsure who they would prefer as prime minister.

When it comes to accessible voters -- those who say they would consider voting for a given party -- the Liberals did improve slightly this week, but are still about 10 per cent lower than they were a year ago.

The most recent numbers have 46 per cent of respondents saying they would consider voting Liberal, which is better than the 42 per cent who say they would consider voting Conservative, but behind the NDP’s 52 per cent.

One thing to look for is whether an election call -- which will provide Trudeau equal media coverage alongside Harper and Mulcair -- can reinvigorate the Liberal campaign.

 

The latest tracking shows the NDP still in the lead, but the Conservatives have been trending up. Where do the Liberals stand? Pollster Nik Nanos explains.

Posted by CTV News on Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Quebec wildcard

Though Mulcair has been trending upwards over the past months, one challenge he does face is a popular leader in Gilles Duceppe. The head of the Bloc Quebecois has seen a surge in popularity since taking over, with 50 per cent of those surveyed in Quebec saying he has the qualities of a good leader.

Mulcair right now sits at 58 per cent in the same category, and his party is still comfortably ahead of the Bloc in the Power Index, but the reality is that Duceppe will be the main challenger on the leadership front in Quebec.

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. The results are based on a four-week rolling average of opinion solicited through a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians in the period ending July 24, 2015. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.