A new survey shows NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is considered the likely winner of the federal leaders' debate ahead of the next election.
The Nanos survey shows 37 per cent of respondents believe Mulcair would be most likely to win the federal leaders' debate. Respondents in Atlantic Canada had the highest expectations, with 46.6 per cent saying they think Mulcair will win. The Prairie provinces had the lowest expectations at 30.9 per cent support for Mulcair.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was seen as the nextmost likely to win, with 26 per cent of respondents expecting him to come out on top. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was third in the survey with 16 per cent support.
Green Party leader Elizabeth May (5%) and Mario Beaulieu of the Bloc Quebecois Party (0.3%) were seen as least likely to win the federal leaders' debate.
“A lot of times, people make their judgements based on the performance that they’ve seen,” pollster Nik Nanos told CTVNews.ca.
He said Canadians have seen Mulcair’s strong performance as official Opposition Leader in the House of Commons and “would expect that he would do quite well in a leaders’ debate.”
Harper’s score, meanwhile, is likely based on his many years of experience in politics and as prime minister, Nanos said.
“The big question mark is Justin Trudeau,” he said. “How will he do during the debate?”
The “good news,” Nanos said, is that expectations are low for the Liberal leader, which means that even if Trudeau has a “reasonable performance in a debate, he’ll probably exceed expectations.
“The downside is that people can’t judge him right now because there is not a lot to judge in terms of his effectiveness on the debate front.”
The survey also found a majority of Canadians are interested or somewhat interested in the possibility of a federal leaders' debate taking place prior to the start of the election campaign. Forty-seven per cent of respondents said they would be interested in such a debate, while 24 per cent said they would be somewhat interested.
“We have a low-grade debate fever,” Nanos said, noting that it’s unusual for people to be discussing political debates months in advance.
But with all the discussions about who will and will not participate in traditional, televised election debates, the issue is on people’s minds, Nanos said.
The Nanos survey results are based on hybrid live telephone interviews and random online surveys with 1,000 Canadians between May 24 and May 28. The survey is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
