Liberals take 6-point national lead, advance in key provinces: poll
Published Thursday, November 28, 2013 10:00PM EST
Last Updated Thursday, November 28, 2013 10:40PM EST
The Senate expenses scandal appears to have eroded national support for the Conservatives as the Liberals now have a six-point lead, according to the latest Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CTV News.
If a federal election were held tomorrow, here’s how the vote breakdown would look like among decided voters. (The difference since the end of October is shown in brackets):
- Liberals: 35 per cent (+4)
- Conservatives: 29 per cent (-1)
- New Democrats: 26 per cent (-5)
- Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent (unchanged)
- Green Party: 3 per cent (+1)
- Other: 1 per cent
The numbers suggest that “the soft NDP vote is starting to rally” behind Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and his party, according to Ipsos Reid.
The Liberals are now leading in three battleground provinces: Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, according to the poll.
- In Ontario, the Liberals (37 per cent) have a seven-point lead over the Conservatives (30 per cent) and NDP (29 per cent).
- In Quebec, the Liberals (33 per cent) have the edge over the Bloc (27 per cent) and the NDP (27 per cent), while the Conservatives (12 per cent) struggle to maintain a foothold.
- In British Columbia, the Liberals (37 per cent) also have a seven-point lead over the NDP (30 per cent) and the Conservatives (28 per cent).
The poll also found that Liberal supporters appear to be most motivated to cast a ballot in 2015.
Among the 52 per cent of surveyed Canadians who said that “nothing short of an emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote,” the Liberal vote rose by two points to 37 per cent, while Conservative support was unchanged at 29 per cent.
“With the election still being two years away, the Conservatives have time on their side,” Ipsos Reid said in a news release.
“But, their own decline coupled with the NDP’s shrinkage makes this the most disadvantageous opinion environment for the Conservatives since just prior to the failed coalition of 2008.”
Ipsos Reid surveyed 1,014 Canadian adults online between Nov. 25 and Nov. 27. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 per cent.