The federal Liberals have trended up over the last two nights of Nanos tracking, the latest poll by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail suggests.

The latest numbers, which were released on Oct. 3, show:

  • The Liberals at 34.6 per cent support nationally
  • The Conservatives at 30.5 per cent support nationally
  • The NDP at 25.1 per cent support nationally
  • The Green Party at 4.8 per cent support nationally

Poll respondents were asked, "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

The results show the Liberal Party has trended up for the second night in a row.

The last two evenings of tracking have seen noticeable movement in favour of the Liberals in one of the country's key battlegrounds: Ontario.

Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario is at 43.6 per cent, while support for the Conservatives is at 33.8 per cent in the province and at 18.6 per cent for the NDP.

Poll methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error 1,104 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The subsample for Ontario is based on 329 decided individuals. A sample of 329 respondents is accurate ±5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Harper's advantage on preferred PM tracking continues

The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's advantage on the preferred prime minister measure continues.

According to the latest survey:

  • 32.6 per cent of respondents said they preferred Harper as prime minister
  • 27.7 per cent preferred Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
  • 24.4 per cent preferred NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
  • 4.8 per cent preferred Elizabeth May
  • 8.8 per cent said they were unsure

Respondents were asked, "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?"

Of those who picked Harper first, 34 per cent said Justin Trudeau would be their second choice.

Meanwhile, 52 per cent of those who picked Trudeau first said Mulcair would be their second choice, and 56 per cent of those who chose Mulcair as their preferred prime minister ranked Trudeau second.

Responses are gathered through a national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey, conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents.

Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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