Fiery Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair is leading the NDP leadership race, according to a poll released Monday by rival MP Paul Dewar.
The survey puts Dewar in third place, also behind Toronto MP Peggy Nash, but at the top of the list as a second choice for NDP members. The second-place lead may be key for Dewar's chances as the March 24 NDP leadership is a preferential ballot, meaning the vote continues until someone has a simple majority.
At 25.5 per cent, according to the new poll, Mulcair falls far short of winning on the first vote.
The first choice results of the poll of 6,373 NDP members:
- Thomas Mulcair 25.5 per cent
- Peggy Nash 16.8 per cent
- Paul Dewar 15.1 per cent
- Nathan Cullen 12.8 per cent
- Brian Topp 12.7 per cent
- Niki Ashton 9.5 per cent
- Martin Singh 4.1 per cent
- Romeo Saganash 3.6 per cent
The second choice results:
- Paul Dewar 21.2 per cent
- Peggy Nash 19.4 per cent
- Thomas Mulcair 16.7 per cent
- Nathan Cullen 14.4 per cent
- Brian Topp 12.4 per cent
- Niki Ashton 10.7 per cent
- Romeo Saganash 3.6 per cent
- Martin Singh 1.8 per cent
The poll was conducted on Feb.8 and Feb. 9, using the most up-to-date NDP membership list, according to the Dewar campaign. Respondents were not told it had anything to do with the Dewar campaign.
The poll has a margin of error of 1.19 per cent 19 times out of 20.
"These results, representing a very large sample of NDP members in every region of Canada, clearly show a number of important factors for this leadership race," Dewar's campaign manager, Dan Mackenzie, said in a statement. "They show that nobody will win on the first ballot, that second ballot support is essential in a one-member-one vote system, that the race has narrowed to a three-way contest, and that Paul Dewar is very well positioned to win".
The NDP will pick the leader to replace Jack Layton on March 24 at a convention in Toronto, using a one member, one vote system.
