The coming winter will not be as harsh as last year, experts say, refuting a prediction by the Old Farmer’s Almanac that “the T-Rex of winters” is ahead. However “some kind of ice event” could hit Ontario and Quebec, as occurred shortly before last Christmas.
While it’s only the first day of fall and thoughts of toques and snow tires may still be far off, there’s been much talk of what Canadians can expect over the winter months given last year’s brutal weather.
Last week, the editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted that Canada is “looking at the T-Rex of winters,” saying it will be “colder” and “snowier” from Calgary to Quebec.
But Marc Sirois, long-range forecast specialist with Canada’s Harrowsmith’s Almanac, says, in fact, “it will not be a T-Rex of a winter.”
In making his forecast, Sirois looks at factors ranging from solar activity to ocean currents, as well as years that had similar weather patterns to what’s been seen so far in 2014.
“I’m looking at overall, across Canada, a bit of a milder than normal pattern, with the exception of the eastern Northwest Territories and Nunavut areas, where it will probably be a colder and stormier season,” Sirois told CTVNews.ca.
Most of Canada “should be welcoming a bit of a respite” compared to last winter, he said.
A cold snap will likely kick off the season, Sirois predicts, but conditions will moderate into a mild December.
However, mild does not mean little snow. Sirois forecasts “some decent snowfalls” in Ontario and Quebec, particularly in December and February. And “we should not rule out the potential for some ice storm in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, potentially into the Maritimes,” he said.
Environment Canada meteorologist Dave Phillips makes a similar prediction. Winter is going to be “not as brutal and brittle as last year,” and will feel shorter with warmer days that allow snow that has fallen to melt.
“It may come out to be normal but it will feel tropical compared to what we had last year,” Phillips told Toronto's all news station CP24 on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal throughout October and early November, both Phillips and Sirois say. It won’t feel like summer, but it will be warmer compared to the typical temperatures for the time of year.
“People will love this kind of fall,” Phillips said.
Indeed, in central Canada, fall has gotten off to a summer-like start, with temperatures in the low 20s Celsius and sunny skies forecast for much of this week.
Over the next few months, temperatures will be 5 to 6 degrees above seasonal, Phillips said.
“I think it is going to be nature’s attempt to make up for what we have called a bummer of a summer,” he said. He added that while summer temperatures were cooler than they have felt in recent years, they were “actually very close to normal."
