With tariffs looming, how hard is it to ‘buy Canadian’?

Grocery store prices in both Canada and the U.S. are expected to rise sharply in the event of a trade war. Heather Wright on how consumers are responding.

With the United States poised to impose hefty tariffs on Canadian goods beginning Saturday, shoppers are bracing for prices to rise on certain products once Canada responds with its own tariffs.

While it’s not clear which American imports may be subjected to retaliatory taxes, some shoppers are already trying to buy Canadian as much as possible.

“The awareness is there,” says Ellen, who tries to pay attention to where the products she purchases come from. We met Ellen while she was shopping at Lady York Foods, an independent grocer in Toronto. Most of the items in Ellen’s grocery basket were Canadian, except for British tea and green onions from the United States. “There’s no alternative,” she said about the onions.

Due to its short growing season, Canada imports a significant amount of produce from the United States and Mexico: roughly 80 per cent of fruit and 60 per cent of vegetables are imported, according to the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute. So even for consumers who want to buy local, it can be challenging especially in the middle of winter.

“Right now, because it is the cold season we have to get a lot of stuff from the States, primarily from California,” says Jake Burkhart, one of the managers at Lady York. “So with those tariffs, it’s going to be a large hit to the industry.”

It’s not clear how broadly U.S. President Donald Trump will apply tariffs or if it will be at the rate of 25 percent which he has threatened for months. But regardless, experts say once tariffs are imposed prices will quickly go up.

“(In) the centre of the store, (there are) a lot of shelf stable products, there are a lot of American products,” says Sylvain Charlebois, a food policy professor at Dalhousie University. “Breakfast cereals, most of it is American. So I do see Ottawa slapping a tariff on those products because sometimes they are seen as less healthy and that could resonate with a lot of people.”

Bourbon and orange juice

Charlebois says American alcohol such as bourbon from Kentucky and orange juice from Trump’s adopted state of Florida could also be slapped with retaliatory tariffs.

“We will likely apply tariffs on specific products that will not hurt our food basket,” he predicts.

But after decades of free trade, Charlebois points out it can be hard to distinguish between what is Canadian and what isn’t.

“Kraft peanut butter is made in Montreal with peanuts from the United States by a brand owned by an American company,” he says. “So is that a Canadian product or an American product?”

While it can be challenging to find Canadian alternatives for every American product on store shelves, some shoppers are already trying to decrease the amount of U.S. goods they buy.

“First of all I don’t want my money to go to the States,” says Noreen Berg, another Lady York shopper. “I don’t like their politics. I don’t like the way they are treating us.”

Berg says she is buying more spinach, which is grown in Canadian greenhouses in the winter, and has switched to frozen fruit.

“I think we are being bullied and I’d like to do what I can,” she says. “What else can I do?”

Ottawa says it has prepared an extensive list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowing a “purposeful, forceful but reasonable” response.

Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland says the list of products should include Tesla vehicles in order to send a message to Trump and his allies, namely Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Freeland told The Canadian Press there should be a 100 per cent tariff on all U.S. wine, beer and spirits, and on all Teslas.

“We need to be very targeted, very surgical, very precise,” she said. “We need to look through and say who is supporting Trump and how can we make them pay a price for a tariff attack on Canada.”