OTTAWA — Canada’s counter-tariffs on U.S. goods have spurred a fresh flood of retaliatory measures from the White House, but retail experts say there will likely be a lag before shoppers see price increases on store shelves. Although higher prices are expected on a range of products, Matt Poirier with the Retail Council of Canada says it will take time for stores to work through existing inventory and begin stocking newly tariffed goods. “There’s an inventory that’s just been juiced up, so it’s going to take time for that inventory at those prices to go through,” said Poirier, the industry group’s vice-president of federal government relations. “Once that inventory is sold or expired, that’s when Canadians could start to see prices increase.” Items with a shorter shelf life and other fast-selling products will likely see prices rise first, followed by durable goods with slower turnover like ovens and washing machines, he added. Canada’s retaliatory duties — ranging from 15 to 50 per cent on nearly $28 billion worth of American products including carpets, electronics and clothing — prompted U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday to ban imports of certain Canadian goods starting Sept. 29. Canadian shoppers may be briefly shielded from the full impact of the escalating trade war as the new tariff costs are negotiated along the supply chain and businesses temporarily absorb some of the cost by accepting smaller profit margins, experts say. “A 50 per cent tariff does not automatically produce a 50 per cent increase at the cash register,” said Andreas Schotter, an international business professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School. While the importer writes the first cheque, the tariff cost is then negotiated along the supply chain, he said. “The American supplier may lower its price, the Canadian importer or retailer may accept a smaller margin and the customer may pay more,” Schotter said. “In most cases, the burden will be divided among them.” Still, the divvying up of the surtax isn’t likely to hit store shelves immediately, he said. “Most consumers will see a lag as existing inventory is sold and more expensive shipments arrive,” Schotter said. “Goods already sitting in Canadian warehouses or stores were imported at the old cost.” The first noticeable signs of the counter-tariffs are likely to be fewer promotions and less product choice as retailers replace American goods with Canadian or overseas alternatives, he said. --- Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2026.
