Scotland should not assume its current ties to the European Union will remain unbroken in the event of a split with the United Kingdom.
According to a European commission spokesperson, an independent Scotland would be considered a new country in the eyes of the 28-member political and economic block, a position adopted from former commission president José Manuel Barroso.
“For European Union purposes, from a legal point of view, it is certainly a new state. If a country becomes independent it is a new state and has to negotiate with the EU,” Barroso told the BBC in 2012.
In separate remarks to the BBC in 2014, Barroso said it would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible" for an independent Scotland to get the required approvals from the member states for it to join the EU.
"We have seen Spain has opposing even the recognition of Kosovo, for instance. So it is to some extent a similar case, because it's a new country . . . coming out of one of our countries, getting the agreement of the others,” he said.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans to trigger an independence referendum on Monday. She says a vote is planned between autumn 2018 and spring 2019, unless the U.K. government offers significant last-minute concessions.
That seems unlikely given Britain’s preoccupation with its own independence. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit bill cleared all the necessary hurdles in that country’s parliament on Monday, paving the way for a simple two-line bill on whether ministers can trigger Article 50 and begin the formal Brexit process.
While the Barroso doctrine suggests Scotland faces an uphill battle with the EU, another key Brussels insider believes the other members will look favourably upon the country if it applies for independent membership.
Jacqueline Minor, the European Commission’s head of representation in the U.K., told the BBC last month that Scotland is already well-aligned with EU membership requirements, putting the country in a stronger position than other nations vying to join.
“I think, obviously, there are some things that would facilitate that process, namely that Scotland would at a previous point have been aligned with the European acquis,” she said. “So it would have a familiarity with European processes, it would probably still have on its statute books a fair amount of European rules.”
However, she stopped short of saying a freshly independent Scotland would be granted a fast-track to membership.
In previous remarks at a recent Scottish Parliamentary Journalists' Association, Minor suggested Scotland would have to queue up for membership with other prospects like Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
